As the race to lead the African Development Bank (AfDB) intensifies ahead of the May 2025 elections, a subtle yet dangerous political drama is unfolding—one that goes far beyond development policy.
Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has thrown his weight behind Senegalese candidate Amadou Hott, a move widely seen not as a continental show of support, but as a calculated maneuver to sideline one of Nigeria’s most respected international figures: Akinwumi Adesina, the outgoing AfDB president. In this geopolitical chess game, the institution risks becoming collateral damage—and so does Nigeria’s own political destiny.
Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has thrown his weight behind Senegalese candidate Amadou Hott, a move widely seen not as a continental show of support, but as a calculated maneuver to sideline one of Nigeria’s most respected international figures: Akinwumi Adesina, the outgoing AfDB president. In this geopolitical chess game, the institution risks becoming collateral damage—and so does Nigeria’s own political destiny.
The AfDB presidency has long been a coveted position—not just for what it represents in terms of development policy, but for its ability to elevate a candidate to global prominence. Akinwumi Adesina, Nigeria’s outgoing two-term president of the Bank, is a case in point. Over nearly a decade, Adesina has built a profile that blends technical expertise, international legitimacy, and pan-African vision. His initiatives have touched hundreds of millions of lives, earning him a reputation as one of Africa’s most capable technocrats.
And yet, rather than leveraging this global asset, President Tinubu appears to be neutralizing him.
By backing Amadou Hott, Tinubu is not just expressing support for a former Senegalese minister. He is also engaging in a high-stakes domestic play: undermining Adesina’s potential rise as a political rival in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.
And yet, rather than leveraging this global asset, President Tinubu appears to be neutralizing him.
By backing Amadou Hott, Tinubu is not just expressing support for a former Senegalese minister. He is also engaging in a high-stakes domestic play: undermining Adesina’s potential rise as a political rival in Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election.
Amadou Hott: A Pawn in a Nigerian Match
Hott may be the face of Senegal’s candidacy, but behind the scenes, his campaign bears the imprint of Nigerian political calculations. A protégé of Adesina, Hott owes much of his career trajectory to the very man Tinubu now seeks to weaken. Adesina personally mentored him at the Bank, appointed him as a special envoy, and has reportedly been lobbying for his success—despite the AfDB’s internal rules discouraging such endorsements.
Ironically, Hott’s candidacy now stands as the very tool used to push Adesina off the continental stage. In this theater of political intrigue, Hott plays the role of a puppet. He is less a contender in his own right than the proxy in a duel between two Nigerian heavyweights.
The broader question, then, is whether the African Development Bank is being reduced to a political pawn—a terrain for score-settling and presidential pre-positioning, rather than a platform for Africa’s development vision.
Ironically, Hott’s candidacy now stands as the very tool used to push Adesina off the continental stage. In this theater of political intrigue, Hott plays the role of a puppet. He is less a contender in his own right than the proxy in a duel between two Nigerian heavyweights.
The broader question, then, is whether the African Development Bank is being reduced to a political pawn—a terrain for score-settling and presidential pre-positioning, rather than a platform for Africa’s development vision.
Tinubu vs. Adesina: The Battle Behind the Endorsement
The rivalry between Tinubu and Adesina is not yet official—but it is becoming increasingly visible. Adesina has made headlines by openly criticizing Tinubu’s handling of economic issues, including the controversies surrounding the Dangote Refinery. His profile as a bold, reformist technocrat who commands international respect positions him as a formidable contender for Nigeria’s 2027 elections.
Tinubu, in turn, appears to be playing the long game. By helping install Hott at the helm of the AfDB, he not only removes Adesina from a powerful platform but also denies him a third-term mandate that could serve as a springboard into national politics.
But this maneuver is not without risk.
Tinubu, in turn, appears to be playing the long game. By helping install Hott at the helm of the AfDB, he not only removes Adesina from a powerful platform but also denies him a third-term mandate that could serve as a springboard into national politics.
But this maneuver is not without risk.
A Lose-Lose Game for Nigeria
Rather than affirming Nigeria’s regional leadership, Tinubu’s gambit may weaken it. In choosing to block a globally respected Nigerian for the benefit of a foreign candidate, Tinubu sends a dissonant signal—not just to Nigerians, but to Africa at large. The optics of sidelining Adesina in favor of his former subordinate, backed by the very president he may challenge politically, raise questions of national interest versus personal ambition.
For the Nigerian public, it’s a lose-lose scenario. Instead of benefiting from a potential presidential candidate with deep development credentials and global standing, the country watches a political proxy war unfold on an international stage. The AfDB becomes a casualty of this domestic drama, its credibility strained under the weight of competing Nigerian agendas.
For the Nigerian public, it’s a lose-lose scenario. Instead of benefiting from a potential presidential candidate with deep development credentials and global standing, the country watches a political proxy war unfold on an international stage. The AfDB becomes a casualty of this domestic drama, its credibility strained under the weight of competing Nigerian agendas.
The Bigger Picture: Regional Frictions, International Ties
Tinubu’s calculus also intersects with broader diplomatic tensions in West Africa. His relationship with France—particularly his alignment with President Emmanuel Macron—has complicated Nigeria’s standing with the Alliance of Sahel States (Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso), especially in the aftermath of the ECOWAS crisis. Supporting Hott may offer an indirect way of signaling alignment with Western partners, while distancing Nigeria from intra-African friction points.
But such diplomacy risks backfiring if it appears too transactional, or if it further erodes confidence in Nigeria’s leadership role on the continent.
But such diplomacy risks backfiring if it appears too transactional, or if it further erodes confidence in Nigeria’s leadership role on the continent.
Africa Deserves Better
As the AfDB prepares for its 2025 elections, the stakes are undeniably high. Yet the real danger lies in what this race reveals: a creeping instrumentalization of institutions for personal and political ends. Tinubu’s endorsement of Hott may serve his short-term ambitions, but it risks sacrificing long-term credibility—for both Nigeria and the AfDB.
Adesina, meanwhile, stands at a crossroads: barred from a third term at the Bank, but potentially propelled toward an even more consequential role. Whether that journey begins in 2027 remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: Africa, and Nigeria, deserve leadership shaped by vision, not vendettas.
Adesina, meanwhile, stands at a crossroads: barred from a third term at the Bank, but potentially propelled toward an even more consequential role. Whether that journey begins in 2027 remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: Africa, and Nigeria, deserve leadership shaped by vision, not vendettas.
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