As the September 21st, 2024 gubernatorial election in Edo
State approaches, a recent voting poll conducted by Concerned Edo Citizens in
the diaspora in collaboration with the Social Research Foundation offers a
revealing snapshot of voter sentiment. The poll, which sampled the opinions of
5,978 registered voters across all three senatorial zones of Edo State, focused
primarily on the three major candidates: Monday Okpebholo of the All
Progressive Congress (APC), Olumide Akpata of the Labour Party (LP), and Asue
Ighodalo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
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| Poll Findings |
According to the results, Olumide Akpata has emerged as the clear front-runner, with 53.7% of respondents indicating their inclination to vote for him. Monday Okpebholo, the APC candidate, garnered 17.1% of the projected votes, while 16.8% of the sampled voters leaned towards supporting the PDP's Asue Ighodalo. Notably, 12.4% of registered voters remain undecided, leaving room for potential shifts in voter preference as the election date draws nearer.
Demographic Insights
The poll further delves into the demographics of voter
support, revealing that Olumide Akpata’s popularity is particularly strong
among young voters aged 20 to 44. This age group, which represents a
significant portion of the electorate, seems drawn to Akpata's message and his
ability to resonate with their concerns and aspirations. This support is
further bolstered by the fact that Akpata hails from Edo South, the senatorial
district with over 50% of the state’s registered voters.
In contrast, Asue Ighodalo's base of support appears to be
concentrated among older voters, particularly those aged 55 to 74. This
demographic, while influential, is smaller in number compared to the
youth-dominated electorate. Monday Okpebholo's support base, though more
diverse, has yet to reach the levels necessary to pose a significant challenge
to Akpata's lead.
Polling Methodology and Accuracy
The poll was conducted via phone calls, a method chosen to
ensure a broad and representative sample of the voting population, given the
diverse and sometimes remote locations of voters across Edo State. This
approach allowed for the inclusion of a wide range of voter opinions, ensuring
that the results reflect the sentiments of the broader electorate.
As with any polling exercise, there is a margin of error to
consider. In this case, the margin of error is between 3.5% and 4.5%, which is
relatively standard for polls of this nature. While this margin allows for some
variability in the final outcomes, it does not significantly alter the overall
trend identified by the poll: Olumide Akpata is the candidate to beat in the
upcoming election.
Conclusion and Implications
The results of this poll suggest that Olumide Akpata is
well-positioned to win the Edo State gubernatorial election, provided he can
maintain his current momentum. His ability to connect with the youth, who make
up the majority of the electorate, coupled with his strong support base in Edo
South, places him in a formidable position. However, the 12.4% of undecided
voters represent a critical group that all candidates will need to court in the
final weeks leading up to the election.
For Monday Okpebholo and Asue Ighodalo, the challenge will
be to broaden their appeal beyond their current support bases. Okpebholo, in
particular, may need to intensify his outreach efforts to younger voters if he
hopes to close the gap with Akpata. Ighodalo, on the other hand, might benefit
from targeting the undecided voters, especially those in the middle-aged
bracket who are yet to make up their minds.
As the election date nears, all eyes will be on how the
candidates adapt their strategies to win over the undecided voters and whether
Akpata can sustain his lead. If the current trends hold, Olumide Akpata is
likely to emerge victorious in the September 21st, 2024 Edo State gubernatorial
election.
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ReplyDeleteI like the polls methodology especially its broad grassroots coverage and statistical analysis. But like we saw in 2023 presidential polls in Nigeria, the election winner is more by rigging at INEC and supreme Court, so the Edo election conducted by same INEC will be rigged and confirmed by the supreme Court in favor APC, and there is nothing LP or Akpata can do about it. APC I know has already spent billions to grab Edo state back into APC, so the September election is already written and secretly declared in favor APC.
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