Former President Donald Trump holds an edge over President
Joe Biden in a series of hypothetical matchups among registered voters in four
key swing states, new polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows.
In Nevada, a state Biden narrowly carried in the 2020
presidential election, Trump boasts 52% support to Biden’s 41%. Trump also tops
Biden in Georgia, a state that was central to his ploy to overturn the last
presidential election, with 49% to Biden’s 43%.
Trump leads Biden in Arizona, too, with 49% to the
president’s 44%. In Michigan, Trump holds a 5-point lead as well: 48% to
Biden’s 43%.
Each poll has a margin of sampling error between 4.4 and 4.8 points, and the head-to-head matchup remains theoretical — primary voting does not begin until next year. Trump overwhelmingly remains the Republican front-runner, while Biden, who drew a primary challenge from Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips last month, is heavily favored for the Democratic nomination.
The latest battleground state polling underscores the
considerable challenges facing Biden’s reelection bid, including low job
approval ratings and questions about his age and ability to steer the country.
The poll results are especially striking for Biden given Trump’s mounting legal
troubles. The former president faces 91 criminal charges across four
indictments. He has pleaded not guilty to all charges.
Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz downplayed the polling
in a statement Sunday, telling CNN: “Predictions more than a year out tend to
look a little different a year later.”
“Coming off those historic (2022) midterms, President
Biden’s campaign is hard at work reaching and mobilizing our diverse, winning
coalition of voters one year out on the choice between our winning, popular
agenda and MAGA Republicans’ unpopular extremism. We’ll win in 2024 by putting
our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll,” Munoz said.
In Pennsylvania, a state Trump won in 2016 but Biden
recaptured in 2020, Trump is at 48% to Biden’s 44%.
One Pennsylvania voter the Times spoke with, who supported
Biden in 2020 but now backs Trump, told the outlet: “The world is falling apart
under Biden.”
“I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a
positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his
wits about him,” Spencer Weiss said.
In Wisconsin, meanwhile, Biden takes 47% to Trump’s 45%,
well within the survey’s margin of error.
With roughly a year until the general election, these polls,
which were conducted by telephone from October 22 to November 3, capture only
one snapshot of the electorate as it currently stands. But they show a broad
sense of discontent.
Across these six battleground states, registered voters give
Biden low job approval marks (38% approve), with just 19% describing the
economy as excellent or good. At the same time, only 42% in these states rate
Trump favorably, similar to Biden’s 41% favorability rating.
Registered voters in these six states give Trump the edge in
trust over Biden to handle the economy, immigration, national security and the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but trust Biden more on abortion, with a close
split on handling democracy.
As CNN previously reported, Biden is just as low in the
White House’s internal polls as in any of the public ones, but his advisers
remain confident that he is the Democrats’ best option in 2024. They also
believe that the presidential election will be decided on razor-thin margins –
and that if Biden loses to Trump, the country will never be the same.
Yet while Trump is fielding multiple legal challenges
related to his business conduct, his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential
election, and his handling of classified information, his GOP support has not
wavered.
The former president has skipped all the Republican primary
debates to date, focusing instead on attacking Biden record.
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