Anap Foundation, a non-profit organisation, says the
recently released NOI polls on the 2023 presidential election followed the same
methodology as its previous polls.
On Wednesday, the organisation released the December edition
of the 2023 presidential pre-election opinion poll.
The results projected that Peter Obi of the Labour Party
(LP) is ahead among the four leading candidates for the 2023 presidential
election.
The three other candidates are Bola Tinubu of the All
Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
The result showed that 23 percent of respondents proposed to
vote for Obi if the election was held at the time of the poll, while Tinubu got
13 percent.
Atiku came third with 10 percent, while Kwankwaso was a
distant fourth with two percent.
The organisation, however, said the poll is inconclusive
considering that the combination of undecided voters and those who refused to
disclose their preferences is enough to change the outcome.
The poll result has since generated varied reactions.
In a statement on Thursday, Festus Keyamo, spokesperson of
the APC presidential campaign council, said there were many unanswered
questions regarding the format for conducting the poll, and alleged that the
outcome was “deliberately skewed”.
Responding to critics in a tweet on Friday, Anap Foundation
said the poll was carried out with the same methodology deployed for previous
polls including the 2015 and 2019 elections.
The short answer to those criticizing our Polls is that @NOIPolls used the exact same methodology for our 2022 Presidential & Governorship Polls (Ekiti, Kwara, Lagos, Abia, Kano & Rivers) as they used in 2015 & 2019. See link to their methodology statement https://t.co/znqCuxs65c
— Anap Foundation (@anapfoundation) December 23, 2022
In September, a similar NOI poll placed Obi as the leading
candidate for the 2023 presidential race, with 21 percent of votes.
THE METHODOLOGY
In a statement released in September, Anap had said the
stratified random sampling design is usually adopted for the selection of
respondents for polling.
“NOIPolls adopts a proportionate, stratified random sampling
design for polling. Respondents 18+ years are selected from our database of
over 70 million phone-owning Nigerians,” the foundation had said.
“Stratification is
set on several key demographics such as age (18+), gender, geo-political zones,
states, and local government areas (LGAs) to make sure the final sample is
representative of the actual population. The gender and the geo-political zone
demographic distribution of the respondents are in the same proportion with the
2006 National Population Census.”
PREVIOUS ELECTION
POLLS
In 2019, a similar NOI poll placed Buhari as the leading candidate for the 2019 presidential election ahead of Atiku Abubakar, candidate of the PDP.
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