Fitch Solutions
Country Risk and Industry Research says Bola Tinubu, candidate of the All
Progressives Congress (APC), will win the 2023 presidential election.
In a report,
the firm, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating
organisation, however, said Tinubu’s victory would spur social instability and
protests because of his party’s Muslim-Muslim ticket.
“We maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed
Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split
opposition vote will favour the APC,” the report stated.
“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
“Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been
an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between
northern and southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims.
“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition
and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians.”
The firm said Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the
Labour Party (LP), would not win despite some polls predicting that he would
emerge president.
Citing a 2020 World Bank report, Fitch said only 36 percent
of Nigerians use the internet where there is huge traction to Obi.
“Surveys showing that Obi is ahead of his opponents, Bola
Tinubu (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), were mostly based on responses gathered
online,” it reads.
“Since only 36.0% of Nigerians use the Internet (World Bank,
2020), we believe that these results are skewed towards urban, affluent voters
who are most likely to support Obi. We also highlight that these polls suggest
that a large share of voters remain undecided.”
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