The All Progressive Congress, APC, may still win the September
16 Edo gubernatorial election despite the qualifications of the incumbent
Governor Godwin Obaseki from participating in the governorship primary.
The APC screening committee
disqualified Governor Obaseki from participating in the governorship primary of
the party.
The disqualification of the embattled governor has been
generating reactions.
However, political analysts believe the decision of the APC
screening committee might not affect the chances of the party in winning in the
coming election.
A Professor of political science at Osun State University,
Bolaji Omitola, clarified that the party has supreme power on its processes.
According to Prof Bolaji, Obaseki lost due to a defective
certificate, he may have scaled through his first term but recent events in
Bayelsa State could have contributed to APC’s decision.
Prof Omitola said, “APC has done what is best for it, and
nobody can say what will come out of the election but Obaseki’s defection might
not affect the party’s victory in the coming election.
“It has happened before in Lagos where an incumbent Governor
didn’t win the party primary and the party still won the election.” He said.
Meanwhile, another Political scientist, Rasheed Rasheed
explained that the APC as a party may not be affected because the overall decision
to pick a candidate rests on the party structure.
He further said the national leadership were tactical and
futuristic in their disqualification of Obaseki.
Mr. Rasheed said, “Obaseki got the message right. One, as he
was disqualified, he knew if he should challenge it, it would open doors to
more crises and make him lose focus on his second term bid. The APC too knew
that once he is disqualified and he moves to another party, there is no way he
will challenge his disqualification in court.
“The next line of action for Obaseki is so clear in the
manner he decided not to challenge his disqualification and his determination
to pursue his second term bid. This implies that he will move to another party
to actualize his dream. And if all calculations are right, he will move to the
PDP because that is the party with the second-largest structure in Edo state.
“It will be suicidal for him to move to a new party just
five months into the election. A party without solid structure abinitio. It’s
not easy to build a party in such a very short period.
“The chances of APC are very bright. Though the election in
my own reading will be violent and tough owing to what we have witnessed so far
in the past. Obaseki and the APC will fight tooth and nail with everything
which may make the election bloody. But APC ‘s hopeful candidate Pastor Ize
Iyanmu is loved by the people.
“He has his structure on ground and can match Obaseki in
everything needed for the poll. Don’t forget Ize-Iyamu has been around for a
while and was dropped by Oshiomhole for Obaseki in 2016. I don’t see Obaseki
coming back though the election promises to be tough and interesting.” He
added.
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