Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organisation (WHO)
regional director for Africa, says COVID-19 may not spread widely on the
continent like it has elsewhere.
As of May 8, Africa had recorded 54, 434 cases, 2,080
deaths, and 18,857 recoveries.
But citing a new study by the regional office for Africa,
Moeti said 83, 000 to 190 000 people could die of the virus in Africa within
the first year if measures to contain it fails.
She added that about 29 to 44 million people in Africa could
get infected with COVID-19 in the first year of the pandemic.
Moeti said the research, which is based on prediction
modelling, looked at 47 countries in the WHO African region with a total
population of 1 billion.
Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon were listed as countries
that were at a high risk if containment measures are not prioritised.
“While COVID-19 likely won’t spread as exponentially in
Africa as it has elsewhere in the world, it likely will smoulder in
transmission hotspots,” she said.
“COVID-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next
several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the
region. We need to test, trace, isolate and treat.
“The importance of promoting effective containment measures
is ever more crucial, as sustained and widespread transmission of the virus
could severely overwhelm our health systems.
“Curbing a large scale outbreak is far costlier than the
ongoing preventive measures governments are undertaking to contain the spread
of the virus.”
She said the predicted number of cases that would require
hospitalisation would overwhelm the available medical capacity in much of
Africa.
Moeti said the report estimated 3.6 million to 5.5 million
COVID-19 hospitalisation, of which 82 000 to 167, 000 would be severe cases
requiring oxygen, and 52,000 to 107, 000 would be critical cases requiring
breathing support.
Such a huge number of patients in hospitals, he said, would
severely strain the health capacities of countries.
The study recommended that countries across Africa need to
expand the capacity particularly of primary hospitals and ensure that basic
emergency care is included in primary health systems.
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