By Olalekan Adigun
After the hotly contested general
election earlier this year, the stage is now set for the first rounds of off-cycle
elections with the gubernatorial elections coming up in Kogi and Bayelsa
states. The elections are significant for some reasons: First, the stakes are
high for the two leading parties in the election. This is because, of Nigeria’s
36 states, both parties nearly share the political landscape equally with the
All Progressive Congress (APC) in control of 19 states against Peoples
Democratic Party(PDP)’s 16. The All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) has been
in control of Anambra since 2006. Secondly, the ruling APC lost five states –
Oyo, Imo, Zamfara, Adamawa and Bauchi – in the last governorship elections
against PDP’s 2 – Kwara and Gombe states. While APC may not want to lose
further grounds by suffering a defeat from PDP in the two states, the PDP will
intend to use that to consolidate on its sub-national stronghold in anticipation
of the 2023 presidential election. The party has lost out in the last two
campaign seasons to the APC. Thirdly, both parties stand good chances to win
one or both states to strengthen their bases or make firm political claims. In
this piece, we shall be analysing the likely issues that will shape the
turnouts and outcomes of these elections that both factions may be giving
everything to win – or not to lose!
Before we go ahead, we need to say that
the author relied on data from the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) for all electoral figures, open-source datasets, and newspaper reports
on violence and other election-related issues. In addition to these, we relied
on some studies conducted recently in sub-Saharan African elections and
elsewhere. These data have little or no predictive capabilities but we are
tempted to engage in prognosis –the obvious limitations in our methodology -
nonetheless.
Some useful numbers
The
elections in both states show that both parties stand nearly equal chances – in
terms of electoral strengths, organisation, and mobilisation capacities - going
by the numbers. In Kogi, the APC (incumbent) presented Yahya Bello and PDP
(challenger) presented Musa Wada. Electorally, the APC won 2 Senators to PDP’s
0[1].
Of the 9 House of Representatives seats in the state, the APC won 4 against
PDP’s 5. According to the INEC, the state has a registered 1,646,350 voters for
the 2019 elections and 33.87% of voters turned out to vote in the last
presidential election.
In
Bayelsa, the numbers are not significantly different from Kogi. But, they can
be reversed for both parties which make things interesting. the APC (challenger)
presented David Lyon and PDP (incumbent) presented Douye Diri. In the last
election, the PDP won 2 Senators to APC’s 1. The PDP won all 5 House of
Representatives seats in the state. Data from INEC shows that there are 923,182
registered voters from Bayelsa and 35.87% of them turned out to vote in the
last election.
Having
seen these numbers, we go on to look at the factors and issues that may shape
the outcomes and turnouts.
Candidates’ support and popularity
Two University of Minho scholars Rodrigo Martins
and Francisco Veiga in 2014 carried out a study[2]
to determine if incumbents benefit from low turnout using evidence from case
studies of 10 national elections conducted in Portugal from 1979 to 2005. Their
study reveals that incumbent candidates and parties tend to lose popularity and
support due to key domestic micro and macroeconomic variables, arising from
serious economic crises which could either make voters cheer or jeer the
government or its party at the polls. Therefore, high turnouts in elections are
of no advantage to incumbents either seeking re-elections for themselves or
their parties. While the Martins and Veiga study may have been carried out in a
completely different political climate from Nigeria, their evidence may still
be relevant to us especially in Kogi and Bayelsa.
The
level of support candidates have – especially for high-stake elections like
Bayelsa and Kogi – tends to boost voter turnout. The turnouts tend to be low if
the leading actors in the election are uninspiring. By candidates’ support, we
mean major endorsements, media coverage, and grassroots outreach.
In
Kogi, Bello, who became the APC candidate after Abubakar Audu suddenly died
after almost won the November 2015 gubernatorial election, has so many things
to prove including demonstrating his popularity and wide acceptability to his
party and in all strata of the state’s political landscape. Late Audu’s formidable
political group reportedly boosted his campaign with their endorsement. He also
seems to enjoy the full backings of the cross-sectional interests within his
party, APC. The case of Musa Wada of the PDP is slightly different. It is not
yet clear how he is managing intra-party disputes that greeted his party
primaries. His Igala root – which is the largest voting bloc in the state – may
boost his chances against the incumbent who is Ebira. The recent impeachment of
deputy governor Simon Achuba, with whom Governor Bello has had an estranged
relationship may also have pitched Igalas against Ebiras. To check or possibly
minimize his losses in Igala land, the governor hurriedly replaced with him
with his Chief of Staff, Edward Onoja. The votes of Okuns of Kogi West – the
least populous in the state – may prove to be decisive in the outcome of the
election. The Okuns have extra motivation and stake in the election because
they will also be voting in a Senatorial re-run after the Courts nullified the
election of Senator Dino Melaye. This may increase the turnouts for the Okuns
and could be very emphatic in determining the outcome of the governorship
election.
Even
though the Kogi election looks on the surface like a straight fight between
APC’s Bello and PDP’s Wada or Igala versus Ebira, it is nearly a different
scenario in the case of Bayelsa. This is because, unlike Kogi, Bayelsa is
monolithic Ijaw. Also, the APC selected David Lyon, a businessman with largely
unknown political profile against PDP’s Douye Diri (who hails from Kolokuma/Opokuma
Local Government Area) a veteran politician and former Senator. Even though
Lyon may be largely unknown to many outside the state, his candidacy is boosted
by the support and endorsement of the immediate past governor of the state and
political heavyweight, Chief Timipre Sylva, who is the minister of state for
petroleum resources. Also, the fact that Lyon is from Southern Ijaw Local
Government – the state’s largest voting bloc – and projected APC’s stronghold
may be to his advantage. In addition to the support of political bigwigs for
both candidates in the state, the battle is fast appearing more like a proxy war
between the current governor, Seriake Dickson, and former president Goodluck
Jonathan over the battle for control of the state’s PDP structure. That APC
deputy governorship candidate, Senator Biobarakuma Degi-Eremienyo, could win
the Bayelsa East Senatorial election in February fuels the fact that the former
president may be backing the APC in the governorship election.
It
appears both candidates are not managing post-primaries crises in their parties
well enough. There have been reports of one of the contestants in the APC
primary, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has gone to court to challenge the victory
of Lyon in what looks like a repeat of the party’s fiasco in neighbouring
Rivers state. The PDP’s also seems to have lost its internal cohesion to
Governor Dickson personally taking control of the gubernatorial campaign.
In
both states, the leading actors have herculean tasks outdoing each other. The
key endorsements, coverage, and grassroots mobilisations will determine the
outcome.
Violence, voter intimidation, and
thuggery
Oxford professor, Paul Collier, and his
colleague Pedro Vicente in a field experiment[3]
from the Nigerian 2007 presidential election argued, in 2014, that violence can
be used to deter voters from exercising their rights. They also argued the use
of violence may not always be to reduce turnouts in the beneficiary’s –
incumbent or challenger – strongholds, but in the areas the beneficiaries may
not be too sure of winning, especially in the swing areas. In the two
gubernatorial elections, it is our view that both leading parties are equally
capable to deploy violence for electoral purposes.
The campaigns of both the APC and PDP in
these states have been intense and relatively peaceful so far. Even at that,
there have been reports of violence such as the attack on PDP candidate’s
convoy and the free for all violence which ended the PDP primary in Kogi. In
Bayelsa[4]
there have been reports of violence where some thugs attacked APC members
during a rally in Sagbama which killed 1 person and injuring 2 others.
As the election day draws near, the camps
in both states have accused each other of trying to rig the elections by
cloning the Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs)[5]
and importing thugs from neighbouring states in bids to influence the outcomes
of the election[6].
A Yenogoa-based non-governmental organisation, Kimpact Development Initiative
(KDI), recently raised the alarm that 7 out of 8 local government areas in Bayelsa
are prone to violence as a result of the rise in hate-filled campaigns and
speeches in the run-up to the governorship election[7].
The heightened tensions and rising profile
of actor-inspired violence mean the elections may not be decided by the first
ballot. Violence may be a reason for possible postponement or rerun in one or
both states – especially for Bayelsa state.
Socio-economic discontents
The seems to be strong evidence of the
influence of socio-economic factors like corruption, unemployment, and poverty
on electoral outcomes and voter turnouts. One of the strongest evidence of this
is vote buying that have characterised Nigerian elections and its reportage in
recent times. In a country with urban and rural poverty at 47% and 59.5%
respectively according to Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative
(OPHDI) 2017 report, Nigeria has one of the highest incidents of poverty in the
world. The World Poverty Clock report alerted that Nigeria has more people
living in extreme poverty “than any other country in the world” as at June
2018, which is projected to increase to “3 people per minute” by 2030. This
means that currently over 86.9 million or nearly 50% of the country’s estimated
180 million population living below the poverty line of $1.90 per day. With the
prevalence of acute poverty in the country, it becomes easy for leading parties
to weaponise poverty and unemployment with corruption in a situation where many
people susceptible to selling their vote for immediate gratification.
The socio-economic outlooks of Kogi and
Bayelsa states are very similar. Both states are owing several month’s arrears
in workers’ salaries, pensions, and other benefits. The recent unemployment
figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that
unemployment rates in Kogi and Bayelsa states are respectively 19.7% and 32.6%.
Also, OPHDI database puts the intensity of poverty figures for both states at
43.2% and 41.4% respectively. The database also shows that both states have
inequality of 0.076 and 0.066.
Had this author been a consultant for one
or both challengers in these states, he may have presented the data above as
evidence that they should easily win the election. Unfortunately, things do not
always work that way. And the reason for this is simple: the evidence in
support for why economically discontented people still troop out to vote
despite their present economic predicaments is largely inconclusive. Two
economists, Barry Burden of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Amber
Wichowsky of the Marquette University did a study in 2014 as to the motivation
of economically discontented voters. They found out that it is not true that
unemployed people withdraw from voting. They observed that unemployment “bring
out more voters.”[8]
They argued that economic discontents make people more likely “…to select
candidates based on economic performance” rather than their current state. But,
based on another study[9]
by Lauren Tracey of the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria in 2016 among
young South Africans, she observed that socio-economic discontents may not so
much that count for why potential voters are apathetic, but that the politicians
have failed to engage them to participate effectively in the electoral process
by including issues seeking to address unemployment on the political agenda.
In the Kogi and Bayelsa election,
socio-economic discontents may be a factor in determining the turnouts, but
with the decisive influence of money for buying votes, they may not play too
much role in deciding the outcomes. In any case, huge turnouts as a result of
socio-economic factors – especially on issues like workers’ salaries and job
creation - may be huge disadvantages for the incumbents in both states.
Incumbency:
opportunities and the risks
Kogi
is located in the North-Central geopolitical zone – a region with 6 states
where APC has 5 APC governors compared to PDP’s 1. Bayelsa state, on the other
hand, is located in South-South geopolitical zone where PDP has 5 governors
compared to APC’s 1. This simply means that the PDP has about 17% (1 out of 6)
chance of winning a governorship election in North Central and APC has about
17% (1 out of 6) chance of winning a governorship election in South-South.
Mathematically, both challengers have slim chances going by the numbers. On the
surface, we can safely predict comfortable victories for the incumbent parties
in both states going by these numbers.
Let
us look at other interesting numbers. In the South-South, there have been 34
gubernatorial elections since 1999, there have been only two cases of incumbent
party’s (or candidates’) losses – PDP’s loss to the Action Congress (AC)
candidate Adams Oshiomhole in 2008 and PDP’s candidate, Nyelsome Wike
reclaiming River state from the Rotimi Amaechi-led APC in 2015. The PDP won all
the four recent gubernatorial elections in Akwa Ibom, Cross Rivers, Delta, and
Rivers states. There will be no governorship election in Edo state until 2020.
This means that, mathematically, a challenging party has just about 6% chance
of unseating an incumbent in a governorship election the South-South. There is
nearly 0% chance of electorally defeating a governor seeking re-election in
this region because there has been no record of such ever happening.
In
the North-Central, there have been 35 gubernatorial elections since 1999, there
have been 8 different cases of incumbent parties or candidates’ losses. Of the
cases, Kwara (Ahamed Lawal, 2003), Nassarawa (Aliyu Doma, 2011), and Kogi
(Abubakar Audu, 2003; Idris Wada, 2015) saw sitting governors lose their seats
to their challengers. This means that a challenging party has about 23% chance
of winning a governorship election in the North Central and there is nearly
11.4% chance of a challenging candidate electorally unseating a governor
seeking re-election in this region.
While
there has been no record of incumbent losing their seats in Bayelsa (save Timipre
Sylva who was forced out of office by political machinations in 2012), Kogi
state alone has recorded two incumbent governors’ losses to their challengers
in 2003 and 2015. This means that the risk of an incumbent governor or party
losing his or her seat in Kogi is higher than Bayelsa.
From the figures above, we can see
clearly that an incumbent candidate or party stands the lesser risk of losing
in the South-South region put together, Bayelsa inclusive. While, in the
North-Central, the challengers seem to have between 11-24% chances of unseating
the incumbents. Interestingly, in the South-South, only Timipre Sylva alone was
politically muscled out of re-contesting an election in 2011. Also, in Kogi,
there are higher mathematical chances of about 40% (2 out of 5 election cycles)
of a challenger defeating an incumbent.
Conclusion
Both the APC and PDP candidates may fancy
their chances in both states because they stand a nearly equal chance of
winning one each. However, the risk factors for APC losing in both states are
higher than PDP. The resurgent of the Bayelsa APC may be good enough if it will
translate to effective mobilisation for voters to exercise their civic duties.
The strong grassroots support for PDP may prove too strong for the APC candidate
in Bayelsa. Due to the closeness of the chances of the candidates, violent
incidents inspired by both parties’ supporters are expected to be on the rise
few days to the election.
Verdict: Other
things being equal, both elections are “anyone’s race”. We project a voter
turnout of over 40-45% which will be so good for the challengers’ parties due
to unfavourable socio-economic climate in both states. Also, a less than 40-45%
voter turnout is a strong possibility and will be favourable to the incumbents.
But, in both cases the factors tilt towards PDP winning by one point in Kogi
and APC in a neck-to-neck position in Bayelsa but PDP is slightly favoured to
win. Both elections may be decided on the second rounds -due to violence - with
this being a strong possibility in Kogi.
Olalekan Waheed
Adigun is the Lead Research Officer at VTrackerNG.org, a project that tracks
social/political violence in Nigeria. He is the author of the book WITNESSING
THE CHANGE. He is also a PhD candidate at the Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka.
He can be reached on +2347081901080 or email: adgorwell@gmail.com.
He tweets from @MrLekanAdigun
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