The Boko Haram crisis is
worsening and returning to pre-2015 levels when the insurgents held territories
in the north-east, a report by SB Morgen says.
The insurgency was at its peak in
2014 with the capture of a strip of territories and the harvest of mass
casualties in the north-east.
About 21 local government areas
out of 27 in Borno state were under the occupation of the insurgents in 2014.
The Buhari administration has
often claimed to have defeated the insurgents and degraded their capacity to
hold any territory in the region.
But the report by SB Morgen, a
geopolitical intelligence platform, said the insurgents are retaking
territories and deploying new tactics in governing the largely ungoverned
spaces in the north-east.
It said the insurgents – ISWAP
faction of Boko Haram – have reduced attacks on the civilian population in an
attempt to win support and recruits, but have ratcheted up the same on the
security forces.
It said current civilian
casualties seem to come from attacks by the Shekau faction of Boko Haram, which
is still active in southern Borno.
“A member of the House of
Representatives from Borno State claims that Boko Haram controls as many as
eight local government areas in the state, ” SB Morgen said.
“While this is probably an
exaggeration, there have been reports by humanitarian organisations and
residents, of Boko Haram moving unchallenged in the rural areas and setting up
checkpoints. This is evident in recent attacks on two local government headquarters
where the terrorists ransacked shops and torched government buildings.
“In addition, the gradual
regaining of territory by the terrorists punctures the claim by the Nigerian
government that Boko Haram has been ‘technically defeated’ based on territorial
gains and losses. The Lake Chad region may gradually be moving from a contested
and stateless territory to one that is firmly Boko Haram-ISWAP controlled
territory, a scenario which will end up taking us back to pre-2015 conflict
levels as the Nigerian state will have no choice but to flood the region with
troops to take back the territory.
“This portends an ominous trend
for Nigeria in the war, especially as the ISWAP faction is apparently committed
to not inflicting civilian casualties, which means it can build local support
and draw recruits. Such a scenario will prolong the war for much longer than it
already has been running.”
The report said security agents,
military formations and government’s property appear to be the primary targets
of the insurgents.
It also said while the number of
attacks galloped after 2015; it fell in 2018 but rose in 2019.
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