Eurasia Group, reputed as the
world’s largest political-risk consultancy, says President Muhammadu Buhari
will win the February 16 presidential election.
In its final Eurasia Group
Politics First election forecast seen by TheCable, the group, which was founded
in 1998 by American political scientist Ian Bremmer, said Buhari has a 60
percent probability to win.
“Opposition candidate Atiku
Abubakar has regained some momentum in recent weeks, but President Muhammadu
Buhari remains favored to win (a 60% probability),” the group said.
“On election day, the ruling All
Progressives Congress’s (APC’s) significantly greater control of local
political structures and resources—it governs 23 states compared to the
opposition’s 12—will boost voter mobilization and solidify Buhari’s advantage.”
In 2015, Eurasia Group tipped
Buhari to defeat former president Goodluck Jonathan, changing its stance some
weeks to the election, after it had initially chosen the former president to
win.
At the time, the group said
although it initially tipped “President Goodluck Jonathan for re-election, a
number of factors had since changed, and the pendulum had swung to the Buhari’s
side”.
ONNOGHEN WILL NOT AFFECT ELECTIONS
Onnoghen and Buhari |
“Positive news coverage in recent
weeks, along with Buhari’s controversial move to suspend Chief Justice Walter
Onnoghen over allegations of corruption, have boosted Atiku’s campaign, but it
is too late to change the electoral dynamics and Buhari remains favored to win
on 16 February,” the group said.
“As we have previously noted, key
actors in Atiku’s camp—including his campaign’s director general Bukola Saraki,
key powerbroker Governor Nyesom Wike of the oil-rich Rivers state, and
southeast governors from his People’s Democratic Party (PDP)—had been
disengaged from his election campaign”.
WIKE ANNOYED, SARAKI DISTRACTED
The group added that Atiku’s big
players have been disengaged from his political campaign, adding that governors
of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will be fighting to ensure they win their
own elections.
“Wike was annoyed by Atiku’s
failure to consult him on key decisions, Saraki remains distracted by a tough
Senate reelection battle in Kwara state, and the southeast governors are
hampered by many conflicting motivations, including their own lack of political
clout (which makes them reluctant to overtly challenge the federal government)
and their wariness of Atiku’s running mate Peter Obi, a former governor of the
southeastern Anambra state who they view as a political outsider.
“The lack of enthusiasm on the
part of some PDP governors is a problem for Atiku because these officials
control significant discretionary funds at the state level (known as ‘security
votes’) that are easier to access without triggering graft concerns.”
ATIKU’S SUPPORTERS NOT WILLING TO DIE FOR HIM
Buhari’s passionate supporters |
The group concluded by saying
“Atiku’s voters do not match Buhari’s in passion and are unlikely to risk their
lives on the streets for him”.
“Though Buhari’s decision to
suspend the chief justice triggered widespread criticism and stoked passions
(along with fears about a more autocratic Buhari second term), many voters
blame the judiciary for not moving quicker to force Onnoghen’s resignation
after he admitted he had violated rules regarding declaration of assets.
“Thus, should Atiku lose, as we
expect, there will be few motivated stakeholders to encourage or instigate
serious violence. Instead, we expect PDP governors to quickly turn their
attention to fighting to retain their own jobs in state elections on 2 March”
A few weeks ago, Eurasia Group
said Buhari will continue as a politically weak president, while Atiku may
retract his pledge made during campaign season.
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