On Tuesday, the National Bureau
of Statistics (NBS) released the gross domestic product (GDP) numbers, showing
a 1.93 percent growth in the Nigerian economy for the year 2018.
Financial analysts, public
commentators, local and foreign media, and opposition bigwigs have said
repeatedly that President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress
(APC) has done poorly with the revival of the economy.
Former president Olusegun
Obasanjo, who is fiercely opposed to Buhari’s reelection went as far as saying
Buhari is weak on the economy, after over a year in economic recession.
Obasanjo added that a change of
the current administration to a government that will improve the economy,
regain the confidence of investors and generally drive growth
We take a look at seven things
the GDP numbers say about President Buhari and his reelection bid.
BUHARI IS REVIVING AGRICULTURE — FOR REAL
President Buhari promised to
revive agriculture, and diversify the Nigerian economy. His government, in
partnership with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) launched the Anchor’s
Borrowers Programme (ABP) to empower smallholder farmers in the country.
The GDP numbers show that
Buhari’s plan in agricuture has been working — beyond the rhetoric, as
agriculture now contributes over three times more to the Nigerian economy, than
oil does.
“Four activities make up the
Agricultural sector: Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing. sector
grew by 18.58% year-on-year in nominal terms in Q4 2018, showing an increase of
8.45% points from the same quarter of 2017,” the NBS report read.
“Crop Production remains the
major driver of the sector, accounting for 89.84% of nominal agriculture GDP.
On an annual basis, agriculture GDP grew by 14.27%, higher than 11.29% recorded
in 2017, The sector contributed 23.08% to nominal GDP in Q4 2018 , which is
higher than its contribution in Q4 2017”.
There are evidence of growth in
virtually every part of the agriculture sector, despite the floods recorded in
the year under review.
BUHARI IS STILL ‘BABA GO SLOW’ — BUT STEADY
Buhari’s major economic policy
document is the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP). The president and his
team say they have remained committed to the plan, which they say will make
Nigeria grow again.
According to the plan, and 2018
budget projections, the Buhari administration forecast that the economy would
grow by 3.5 percent in 2018. But based on the GDP numbers released on Tuesday,
the economy grew by a sluggish 1.93 percent.
On the economy, Buhari’s
government has been delivering slow, but steady growth, since exiting recession
in 2017.
NIGERIA STILL HAS AN OIL PRODUCTION PROCESS
While Nigeria does not want to
fixate its economic prosperity on oil and gas, Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo had
made it clear that Nigeria needs oil money to get out of oil dependence.
As the country shifts to the
non-oil sector, there is a need to make as much money as the country can make
from oil to develop other sectors of the economy. But Nigeria is not making the
most of oil.
“In the fourth quarter of 2018,
average daily oil production stood at 1.91 million barrels per day (mbpd). This
was lower than the 1.95 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017, and 1.94mbpd
in Q3 2018,” NBS estimates.
This is less than budgetary
benchmarks of 2.3 million barrels per day projected by the Buhari
administration, and less than production levels under previous governments.
Despite an increase in oil prices
in 2018, Nigeria “recorded a real GDP growth rate of –1.62% (year-on-year) in
Q4 2018, indicating a decline of –12.81% points relative to the growth rate
recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017”.
This highlights a production
problem in the oil sector.
BUHARI’S TEAM DROPPING THE BALL ON MINING
Following the appointment of
Kayode Fayemi as the minister of mines and steel development, the Buhari admin
made significant progress in mining across the country.
But the numbers show that there
has been a drop in the reality of the sector.
“In real terms, the Mining and
Quarrying sector grew by –1.23% in Q4 2018. This was lower than rate recorded
in Q4 2017 (10.7%) but higher than the growth rate in Q3 2018 (-2.81%).
“The sector’s contribution to
real GDP in Q4 2018 stood at 7.23%, slightly lower than its contribution of
7.49% recorded in Q4 2017 and the 9.53% recorded in the Q3 2018. The sector
contributed 8.74% to total real GDP in 2018.”
MANUFACTURING IS BOOMING UNDER BUHARI
Buhari’s foreign exchange policy
has been to limit what is being imported into Nigeria and increase what is
being produced locally. With the support of the Central Bank of Nigeria, the
government has been very strict on this.
The numbers show that Buhari’s
plan is paying off, as Nigeria’s manufacturing sector seems to be booming.
“In the fourth quarter of 2018,
nominal GDP growth for the Manufacturing sector was recorded at 33.57%, which
is 24.37% points higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding period of
2017 (9.20%)”.
Buhari is pro-local
manufacturing, and the numbers are on his side.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS GETTING BIGGER WITH BUHARI
“Telecommunications &
Information Services under Information and Communication sector grew by 16.67%
in Q4 2018 from 14.97% in Q3 2018 and -3.28% in Q4 2017,” the report read.
Nigeria’s telecoms sector is
contributing immensely to the country’s gross domestic product, and has
continued on an upward trend from third quarter 2017 to date.
NOLLYWOOD ISN’T DOING SO WELL WITH BUHARI
While the information and
communications sector of the economy has been doing so well under Buhari, the
section of it, which makes up a large part of Nollywood — Motion Pictures,
Sound recording and Music production — has not been doing so well.
Its been a rough road with the
Buhari administration: In Q2 2017, the sector shrank by 4.53 percent, and
recorded growth of 1.02 percent by the end of the year, only to shrink by 2.29
percent by Q2 2018.
At the end of the year under
review (2018), the sector grew 0.55 percent.
The same zig-zag growth and
decline have been recorded in the broadcasting, arts, entertainment and
recreation sectors of the economy.
Obasanjo may have said Buhari is
weak with the economy, the incumbent may have said he has done well with the
economy. But what does the numbers say to you?
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