The Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU), the research unit of The Economist Magazine, says Atiku Abubakar,
candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will defeat President Muhammadu
Buhari in 2019.
The London-based magazine made
the prediction in its latest country report on Nigeria, which was obtained by
THISDAY.
This is coming less than two
months after it had predicted that Buhari would lose the election.
“Mr. Buhari is the APC’s
presidential candidate and his main challenger is Mr. Abubakar, who was
recently nominated PDP’s candidate with overwhelming backing from the party,”
the report read.
“Abubakar’s pledge is to
reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms. Both candidates are from the
northern Nigeria, where Buhari’s support base lies, presaging a fierce contest
there.
“With the vote likely to be split
in the North, Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s
south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP.
“This gives Abubakar an edge, as
does popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the
biggest voter concerns) on Mr. Buhari’s watch, as well as growing insecurity in
central Nigeria.”
The magazine said strong
incumbency advantages in the country will make the contest a tight race.
“If Abubakar loses – a distinct
downside risk to our forecast – there may be a rejection of the result by the
PDP, which is convinced that election will be rigged,” it said.
“In this scenario, a state of
national paralysis could arise with severe national security implication.”
The EIU, which gave different reasons
for its prediction, also noted that without a party system based on shared
principles, it would be difficult to overcome Nigeria’s multi-layered security
threats.
It added that instability and
legislative paralysis would affect many aspects of the economic forecast.
“We forecast that currency
depreciation will keep annual inflation elevated at an average rate of 13.9 per
cent in 2019 -2020,” it said.
“Following this will be a period
of disinflation in 2021- 2023 as the naira stabilises. Export growth will be
slower in 2019-2020, as oil prices dip in these years, than in 2021-2023, when
world crude prices are expected to rise. Import demand will also be held back
in 2019-2020, as the naira depreciates before picking up in 2021-2023 as the
currency stabilises.
“The election period itself will
be a time of high risk; as a recent election in Osun demonstrated, small scale
violence at the polls is highly likely, as is disputation of the results.
“Parliamentary rift will remain
the main problem and this applies no matter who is in charge, given competing
priorities between representatives from different regions and the absence of
common ideology within parties.
“Without a collective resolve, it
would prove impossible to bring permanent peace to the large parts of Nigeria
hit variously by an insurgency in the north, ethno-nationalism tensions and
disputes over land access across the centre of the country.
“It will prove to be hard to
build a more effective security apparatus while also creating economic
opportunities for local population; poverty lies at the root of much of the
instability.
“Our central forecast is,
however, that the 2019 elections will be completed without a widespread
breakdown of stability – with Nigeria’s democracy proving once again to be
robust enough to endure.
“In 2019, what are expected to be
fiercely contested elections in February will hold back business and consumer
confidence that year, and although markets are likely to approve of Mr.
Abubakar’s economic reform agenda – meaning the disruption is likely to be
short-lived- we forecast a growth rate of 1.9 per cent – the lowest rate of
growth in our five-year outlook period.”
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