Atiku is a founding father of the
PDP, the ACN and the APC. The promiscuity is legendary. If he wasn’t rich
enough to dole his way to the heart of things every time he has had to move in
with one of his ‘offsprings’, he would quite easily have been the most hated
politician in Nigerian politics.
It was barely 72 hrs into his PDP return
before word spread that he had taken over the campaign expenses of Prince Uche
Secondus, a party chairmanship candidate and just over a week later, reports
emerged that he had donated $10m to the coffers of the party.
But money has never gotten him
anywhere. The only time he managed to cop himself a presidential race ticket
was when he formed his own party and he was excluded by INEC from that race in
2007. That was the closest he has ever gotten to his dream and again, he will
lick his wounds when all is said and done. These are the reasons why.
1.BUHARI’S SHORTCOMINGS DEFINE HIS VISION
Thanks to the social media,
politicians no longer have to issue press releases or arrange interviews before
they can get across to us. We are just a click of a button away. Atiku is one
of the busiest politicians on twitter, airing his views on one thing or the
other. What annoys however, is how he keys into Buhari’s misgivings to ‘sell
his market’ rather than draw us clear road maps to economic sustainability,
diversification or a vibrant health sector. The desperation is sickening.
If Buhari’s 97%-5%
dividend-sharing proclamation is highlighted, Atiku will jump up to paint
himself a man of all peoples. When what is popularly referred to as Buhari’s
‘northern agenda’ leads to calls for restructuring, Atiku will strongly align
himself with those voices. If the Aso Rock rat invasion is raised again, I bet
Atiku will tweet to let us know he and his family are clean people.
The thing is this man was once
vice-president of Nigeria. If he spent half as much time enlightening us on his
efforts at making Nigeria better instead of degrading a man he helped bring
into power, maybe he would score real points and not ones that pass him off as
an opportunist.
2.A MEMBER OF THE OLD ESTABLISHMENT
Like he rightly pointed out in
his letter to comedian, IGoDye, his generation of leaders have failed us. Atiku
was there at the commencement of PDP’s 16 year impunity. Nobody remembers him
for criticizing Obasanjo for the Odi and Zaki Biam massacres neither do we
remember him for resigning over the trillions taken out of our coffers all in
the name of improving power supply.
The only real reason some chill
was placed on the ‘recycling same old leaders’ vibe is because most mindsets as
regards 2019 tell an ‘anybody over Buhari’ story and Atiku is reaping off that
like no man’s business. But wait till he gets some serious competition. We’ll
remember how PMB; the very best of the old school turned out the worst
president we have ever had.
3.THE PDP RETURN FACTOR
Like a number of people have
already pointed out, the APC was a haphazard arrangement set in place with the
sole aim of kicking out the PDP and as soon as that goal was reached, that
arrangement came back to hunt them. There were Saraki/Buhari and Atiku-Tinubu/Oyegun
factions in just over a year as ruling party with no convention to fill up
vacant positions in the party exco till date. Atiku would have stood a much
better chance if he was moving to the APC than the other way round.
The PDP has proved managing power
and the different personalities whom it revolves around is not an easy
task.Despite having its own fair share of problems, the PDP is more formidable
an entity than the APC.
When the welcome parties end,
Atiku will find it hard selling his candidature ahead of loyal members of his
new family; the proud lot used to handing over their chaff to the APC. Mark
these words: Atiku’s return will prompt a lot of PDP members in due time, to
wax righteous about party loyalty and having more pride than the APC. Even
those eating everything he offers now. I don’t think dishonour in the PDP would
take anyone by surprise.
4.LOSING THE NORTH
This is probably the main reason
why Atiku will not be president in 2019. Buhari may have drawn bad blood from
other regions for unduly favouring the north but capitalizing on that to curry
their support only leaves him exposed where it matters most; the north. The one
region whose voting power gurgles up that of other regions combined.
The northern electorate are a
very sentimental bunch. Despite performing dismally, PMB still enjoys a lot of
love there because the average man on the street has been programmed to see him
as not only pro-masses but one with his best interests at heart.
It would have been okay if Atiku
had vouched for reconstruction and gone ahead to sell it peacefully but tweets
about how dilapidated houses in the north were compared to the east that had
survived a civil war doesn’t suggest he fully understands the long run
consequences of appearing an enemy.
The entire Atiku machinery at the
moment seems geared towards other regions; the very enlightened ones who
already understand the need to change the present status quo.The real task lies
in selling his candidature to his people and that I doubt he can do.
Umar Sa’ad Hassan is a lawyer
based in Kano. He tweets via @alaye26
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It would have been okay if Atiku had vouched for reconstruction and gone ahead to sell it peacefully but tweets about how dilapidated houses in the north were compared to the east that had survived a civil war doesn’t suggest he fully understands the long run consequences of appearing an enemy.
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