More than three months after
leaving Nigeria, it remains unclear when President Muhammadu Buhari will
return, despite his remarks about his desire to resume work. They were merely
the latest in a number of presidency announcements.
But even from far-away London
Buhari and his aides have restrained acting president Yemi Osinbajo.
“He (Osinbajo) is so scared to
offend President Buhari to the extent that he takes no major action without
consent from him through phone,” said a presidency official, asking not to be
named.
Osinbajo and his aides often hold
meetings which has enlivened a presidential villa criticised for inertia — but
he still seeks approval from Buhari or his chief of staff.
He flew to London for a few hours
last month to get Buhari’s approval to appoint two ministers who had been
already cleared by parliament, the official said.
During the meeting, Buhari even
asked Osinbajo to give the ministers no portfolio as he wanted to assign them
himself after his return, he said.
Moreover, when Osinbajo tried to
appoint a new board for an anti-corruption commission he had to withdraw his
candidates because Buhari’s aides did not like two names, the official said.
Among the few projects Osinbajo
got underway are the legalising of illicit refineries in the restive Niger
Delta oil hub, often the only work for youth who tend to join otherwise
militants.
Osinbajo also ordered an overhaul
of dilapidated facilities at Lagos airport, the main entry gate into Nigeria,
as part of a plan to ease doing business.
The new FX trade window has
prompted some foreign investors to return, pushing Nigerian stocks to a nearly
three-year-high in August.
But its inconclusive nature still
holds back investors, London-based Capital Economics said.
“There is a possibility that Buhari returns, sees things improving and thinks there is no need to change anything.
“There is a possibility that Buhari returns, sees things improving and thinks there is no need to change anything.
Further reforms are desperately
needed to achieve meaningful growth,” said John Ashbourne, Africa economist at
Capital Economics.
The window for Osinbajo to launch
bold economic reforms and wrestle the ill-disciplined naira currency into shape
is fast closing.
President Buhari signalled over
the past weekend that he is ready to return from receiving medical treatment in
London as soon as his doctors allowed it.
That could put paid to investor
hopes for economic changes to qualify Nigeria for a World Bank loan to drag it
out of recession. It will also leave the plethora of naira exchange rates
standing, albeit perhaps closer to each other.
Buhari has kept a grip on power
despite his medical leave, and the more business-friendly Osinbajo has been
reluctant to challenge him.
This has gone as far as him
flying to London to get permission for personnel changes.
“We don’t expect any deviation
from the current economic policy stance should President Buhari return,” said
Cobus de Hart, senior economist at South Africa’s NKC African Economics.
“One could hope that the return
of the president goes hand in hand with an acceleration of reform
implementation, but we doubt this will be the case.”
Osinbajo, who has been running
Nigeria since Buhari went to Britain on May 7 and also ran it between January
and March, has made some changes.
He has managed to calm tensions
in the Niger Delta oil hub and pushed small steps such as a forex trade window
to narrow the gap between the official and parallel naira exchange rates.
But a unifying of all the exchange rates — there are at least six, including
the black market — remains far away. It would amount to a devaluation, which
Buhari has opposed.
TIGHTROPE
Buhari, a former military ruler
from the north, made Osinbajo acting president when he first went to Britain to
avoid a vacuum as occurred in 2010 when then-President Umaru Yar’Adua spent
three months in a Saudi hospital while his aides shrouded his illness in
secrecy.
His deputy Goodluck Jonathan only
took over in a constitutional crisis after Yar’Adua died.
Osinbajo has gone out of his way
to show his loyalty — as a Christian lawyer from Ogun state, he is walking a
tightrope to avoid policies that may annoy Buhari and his inner circle, who are
mainly Muslim northerners.
“The chief of staff and his team
are working alongside Osinbajo on the understanding that (he) will not run in
2019,” a government adviser said. Osinbajo has never said he wants to run.
“The election cycle is the last
two years of an administration. As we enter the election the issue of mutual
trust becomes crucial because nobody wants to be ambushed,” said the adviser,
who did not want to be named.
Traditionally in Nigeria, the
leadership rotates between north and south to ensure a balance in a country
evenly split between Muslims and Christians.
Jonathan, a Christian from the
south, upset many northerners by refusing to give way. Northerners also felt
there should have been another northern term after Yar’Adua’s death. Hundreds
were killed in riots after Jonathan’s election in 2011.
Reuters
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