The Federal Government promised to generate, transmit and distribute
at least 20,000 Megawatts (MW) of electricity within four years and increase it
to 50,000 MW with a view to achieving uninterrupted power supply within 10
years. This was part of their campaign manifesto as they sought to take over
the reins of government in the last polls. This power generation proposal is a
laudable initiative but then it is just a campaign promise. Nigeria currently
generates less than 5,000MW which is far too small for a population of over 160
million people. Lagos state alone based on her population requires at least 5,000MW
to satisfy her power needs. Generating 20,000MW over a period of four years
will adequately solve our energy needs in no distant time. However, Nigerians
are used to hearing this campaign ‘one –liners’! It already appears such a promise
has been reneged upon as there are no indicators of it in the offing.
It is still early days in the new administration so it will be absurd
for anyone to fault the government of the day on the power debacle. However,
looking at this holistically, the feasibility of generating ‘20000MW in four
years’ is doubtful. The reasons are simple. The budgetary allocation of the
Works, Power and Housing ministry in the 2016 budget is way below satisfactory!
The long term power generation plan as promised was not captured in the
budgetary provisions. Proponents of the Government may argue that we have a dwindling
source of revenue. As true as this is, we need to channel more of the limited
funds in our kitty to power generation. As it stands, our economic breakthrough
is largely dependent on diversification of the economy. The non-oil sector
cannot thrive without adequate power supply. Transportation, manufacturing and
production of agricultural produce require power to make this sector
economically profiting. Moribund companies like the Ajaokuta steel company won’t
be in business as long it remains cheaper to import steel products than to
manufacture steel products–considering the operating costs.
The main reason we cannot produce the energy we need is our
overdependence on oil products. The demand for electricity far outweighs
supply. We have no reason to be short in power availability –solar energy,
biomass and wind energy can be harnessed as these resources are readily
available. Unfortunately, we do not have the technology and equipment to
convert this energy into useful power.
Nigeria is been colonised by darkness. The average citizen generates
his or her own power to meet his or her energy needs. Providing ₦433.4 billion for three critical areas of the economy to share
whereas some other sectors got close to a quarter of these doesn’t make
economic sense. The National Assembly got more budgetary allocation than a
critical non –oil sector, Mines and steel yet we expect what is virtually
non-existent to fund our future needs? Jack Gerrard, the president and CEO of
American Petroleum Institute closely linked a nation’s prosperity with its
Energy Production. He reckoned that at a time
when economic recovery still hangs in the balance, the need for an energy
policy that recognizes energy production from renewable and non-renewable
sources holds the key to ushering in a new era of prosperity. Though he
was referring to the American Energy market, this submission is also true of
the Nigerian energy market. Our economy is not healthy at the moment and we
need to take drastic steps to implement existing energy policies to keep us
afloat.
Depending on the
technology, generating 1 KW of electricity will cost between $800 and $2000.In
essence, it will require an investment of $16 billion to $40 billion to meet the
20000MW target. Unfortunately, the government of former president Olusegun
Obasanjo invested close to $16 billion in the power sector with nothing concrete
to show for it except poorly sited Independent power projects! The current
government will need to invest at least $7 billion yearly to meet their target
of 20,000MW in four years. This alone is more than the budget of the Works,
Power and Housing ministry! Did the current government just say that they will
generate 20,000MW in four years for the fun of it without analysing the facts
on ground?
Or perhaps as part of political gerrymandering? Our main source of
revenue has dwindled recently with future oil prices projections not
encouraging. Looking closely at the 2016 budget, aside other revenue sources,
non-oil revenue is projected to generate ₦1.45 trillion.
How is this feasible without a capital investment in the power sector? One does
not need to be savvy in Energy matters to know that solving our power debacle
will transform that sector. Modern day agriculture requires power for improved
cultivation, processing and supply chain management.
This is no rocket science.
As long as banks, companies and industries continue to generate their own
electricity, the masses will continue to bear the brunt of it – More hardship!
Telecommunication companies in Nigeria generate their own power for their base
stations.
A typical base station has two generators working interchangeably.
They operate non-stop with diesel and they have approximately 20,000 of such
base stations in the country. Imagine the power been generated by these
stations cumulatively! And as expected, the cost of these is passed on to the
citizenry.
Yet the Federal Government in partnership with the Nigerian
Electricity Regulatory Committee (NERC) thought it ‘wise’ to approve a new
electricity tariff starting from
February 2016(That is if the members of National Assembly don’t intervene) .
Whether it is a business decision or a political one is yet to be fully understood.
Most of the private investors in the power sector say they need to bridge the
gap between the operating costs and Electricity tariffs and keep to the terms
of agreement they signed previously. Will an increment in Electricity tariffs
improve power supply now? One thing is
certain. Our Energy poverty level is at its peak. Increasing electricity tariff
is not only insensitive at the moment but further piles on more suffering on
the populace.
The Federal Government needs to review
or supplement the budgetary allocation for the Power, Works and Housing
ministry with a view achieving its campaign promise. Our main stay of revenue
has nose-dived greatly.
We cannot afford to spend as we did during the heydays
of high oil prices. However, to keep afloat in these turbulent economic times,
we need to channel more of our resources to the right sectors. In 2010, at the Joint
Lagos State Executive Council and Permanent Secretaries Retreat which held at
the Golden Tulip Hotel, Lagos, The
current minister in charge of the ministry of Power, Works and housing then
Governor of Lagos state ,Mr Babatunde Fashola, had charged the then Federal
Government to provide a road map for the power sector. He demanded transparency
in the dealing of the then Federal government in the power sector and chided
them to more proactive. As fate will have it, He has now been saddled with the
task of implementing his own recommendations. The government of Dr. Goodluck
Jonathan succeeded in getting a comprehensive roadmap for the power sector. The
82 –page document covered sound policies that that will free Nigerians from the
shackles of darkness in the long run provided the recommendations are well
implemented.
The 13-point agenda unfolded by
the minister of Power, Works and housing is basically not different in
principle from the revised road map for the power sector. Ordinarily, it would
have been expected that the road map would have been further revised and not
jettisoned totally. The 13-point agenda is very much achievable. However,
uninterrupted power supply cannot be achieved at the moment even if all the
generated power of approximately 6,000MW is effectively distributed. It is
expected that we take necessary steps to improve our generating capacity if we
are to ever achieve uninterrupted power supply in Nigeria.
Samuel Onimpa Alfred is
a Mechanical Engineer based in the UK with special interest in the World
energy market
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Thanks for this article.
ReplyDeleteElection is over, now is time for APC to match words with action.
Buhari government the worst ever filled with deceits.
ReplyDelete