The result of the Nigerian 2015 presidential election shows
how elections are won and lost on the altar of strategies. The opposition All
Progressives Congress (APC) did the impossible by unseating the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in
the March 28 Presidential elections effectively ending its 16-year dominance in
the Nigeria political space.
President Goodluck Jonathan and his party, the PDP, as far
as some of us are concerned lost the election due to his own
undoing-underestimating the APC’s strategies. The APC simply discovered a new
way of defeating its arch rival with the PDP seriously suffering from
constipation.
The following proves the difference between the two parties:
The (Mis)Use of
Propaganda
Both parties used propaganda in the build up to the March 28
election, it is very difficult not to! The only worrisome aspect is its
tactless use by the PDP. Instead of promoting their own candidate, Goodluck Jonathan,
they ended up promoting the APC candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari. They
sponsored on several Television stations personal attacks on the General, many
of which largely went over the bar. They even behaved like the US Republican
during the Franklin D. Roosevelt who, in their uncontrolled attacks, included
the President’s dog, Fala. There were several mentions of the General’s
academic qualification, his health status,
and they even went so puerile to included his daughter who died of
Sickle Cell anaemia in their propaganda effort.
To cap it up one of the television stations airing the PDP
propaganda, African Independent Television (AIT) conducted an online poll,
which put Buhari clearly on the lead with 76 per cent while President Jonathan
was trailing behind with about 20 per cent.
Needless to say that the poll was cancelled abruptly, but the message
was clear-the attacks were not working!
Propaganda is not itself bad if it is serves the exact
purpose for which it was used. The Nazis learnt this bitter lesson during the
World War II with the British superior propaganda machinery. So if the PDP lost
due to propaganda, then the APC must have had more effective propaganda
machine!
Grounds Covered
In 2011, President Jonathan rode to power purely on the
basis of strong positive public perception, winning in four of Nigeria’s six
geo-political zones. The fact that President Jonathan, from South-South zone,
contested against three leading Northern Presidential candidates largely
divided northern votes which all ran in his favour while he cruses home with
southern votes including the south west.
All that changed in 2015. The Boko Haram insurgency in the
north east made that region a “No Entry” point of President Jonathan. Though he
won in Taraba, a Christian dominated state, having little to do with the Boko
Haram fiasco.
In the North Central where President Jonathan won in every
single state, except for Niger, jumped ship. Of the six states, General Buhari
won in four: Niger, Kwara, Kogi, and Benue, leaving President Jonathan with
slim victories in three: Abuja, Plateau, and Nassarawa(a surprising victory?).
In the North West, the most populous in the country, is
considered General Buhari’s “home” so President Jonathan was seriously expected
to sweat it out seriously in this region. Even the most optimistic of the
president’s men would not have expected a miracle for the president in this
region. It is doubtful if the President even got the constitutionally required
25 per cent in this region.
The South West region, which voted massively for President
Jonathan in 2011, provided unclear picture for the president’s strategists. Some
are of the opinion that president Jonathan won the 2011 election thanks to bulk
votes he got from the Yorubas. I didn’t share this view until recently. The
President got a total of 22.5 million national votes. If we remove 8.5 million
Yoruba votes from his votes he is then so close to his next contender, who
scored 12.5 million votes. In the worst case scenario, the election will have ended
in a run-off whose outcome is largely unpredictable.
The president’s loss in this region, except in Ekiti State,
is largely his undoing. He did not return the favour of the region’s votes
throughout his tenure. Needless to say
the APC appointed Professor Yemi Osinbajo from the region as its Vice
Presidential candidate. This proved to be where the party hit the jackpot,
winning the five out of six states in the region.
The Western Influence
There are strong indications of United States and United Kingdom’s
influence on the outcome of the March 28 election. Though this is largely
difficult to prove, there are several clues to point out this fact.
First, the APC’s strongest point in the campaign was based
on the Boko Haram insurgency. The situation largely portrayed the Jonathan’s
administration as irresponsible, “clueless”, and ineffective. To compound the
problems, the Barrak Obama administration refused to supply arms to the federal
Government in its fight against the terrorists.
Secondly, is the fall in the oil prices with the Americans
refusing to purchase Nigerian oil. This led the federal government to implement
“austerity measures” in the face of the “US-induced oil crises”. The opposition
cleverly keyed into this slump again to portray the government as reckless.
Thirdly, the role of the Amarican public relations’ firm,
AKPD Media and Message Consulting is another pointer to the “Obama hand” in the
outcome of the election. The firm is owned by David Axelrod, Obama’s confidant.
Though the firm has denies it served as a media consultant to the Nigerian
opposition when it said it broke initial agreement it had with the APC in
March, 2014 there are clear evidence to show that the firm in fact did the work
for the APC behind the scenes.
Fourth, since he started contesting in 2003, at no time has
General Buhari been granted an international audience. In fact there were
insinuations in some quarters that he is a wanted man in London because of his
alleged role, as Nigerian Head of State, in the attempted kidnap of ex-Minister
of Transport under President Shehu Shagari, Mallam Umaru Dikko on the streets
of London in 1984 leading to strong diplomatic row between both countries. His
invitation and subsequent acceptance to deliver a lecture at the influential
Royal Institute for International Affairs, also known as Chatham House, London
effectively ended all insinuations. Before then, he was largely viewed as a
dictator with poor human right record and a religious bigot in the West. The
question then is: What has changed?
If President Jonathan and PDP take closer look at their
outing in the Presidential campaign they will discover that though they
misfired on several occasions, but they lost the battle to the fact that they
largely underestimated the more vibrant, innovative, and coherent APC strategy.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Olalekan Waheed ADIGUN is of many parts. He is a writer,
philosopher, academic, dramatist, poet, psephologist, and researcher. He also
an independent political strategist and brand manager for political campaigns
and organizations. His write-ups can be viewed on his website http://olalekanadigun.com/
Tel: +2348136502040, +2347081901080
Email: olalekan@olalekanadigun.com
Twitter @adgorwell
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