A former United States’ ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, has warned of likely large scale violence in the March 28 and April 11 polls.
A new report published and released by the US’ Council on Foreign Relations and authored by Campbell, said the 2015 elections may “precipitate violence that could destabilise Nigeria.”
The report noted that the US government was at a loss as its influence on the Nigerian government has waned over the years.
“The upcoming elections are a rematch of the 2011 elections between the incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan (a southern Christian) and Muhammadu Buhari (a northern Muslim and a former military chief). Tension between Washington and Abuja is higher than in 2011, largely over how to respond to the radical Islamist insurgent group, Boko Haram, which is steadily gaining strength in northeast Nigeria,” it said.
According to the report titled, ‘Nigeria’s 2015 Presidential Election: Contingency Planning Memorandum Update,’ Jonathan will face a stiff competition from Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) in the March 28 presidential poll.
“The APC is stronger than its predecessors (Action Congress of Nigeria and Congress for Progressives Change) and reflects a splintering of the political classes. The government’s inability to defeat Boko Haram, the economic hardships brought on by falling oil prices, and a growing public perception that the Jonathan administration is weak have fueled support for the All Progressives Congress. Though the APC’s voter base is in the North, it enjoys support all over the country, unlike the opposition in 2011,” Campbell stated.
He, however, pointed out that Jonathan had significant advantages over Buhari. According to him, the President is “is at the centre of extensive patronage networks; he has access to the government’s oil revenue; and he and his party largely control the election machinery and ballot-counting infrastructure.”
Though the former US ambassador to Nigeria said would-be voters in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe were likely to cast their votes for Buhari and the APC, he tipped the incumbent President to win the poll.
“It is uncertain whether any provisions will be made for voters in the three northern states placed under a state of emergency because of Boko Haram, as well as the estimated one million people displaced by the insurgency. These displaced voters would likely support Buhari and the APC; their exclusion would benefit Jonathan and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Thus despite the strength of the opposition, Jonathan remains the likely—but not certain—winner.” Click to signup for FREE news updates, latest information and hottest gists everyday
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I like your analysis Campbell. This is to let us know that your country wants a weak administration and insurgents continuity. Instead of proffering ways to ensure peace, you proclaim violence and suggest that over 1M displaced Nigerians to be disenfranchised. You are working towards the splitting of our great nation as predicted long ago. Nigerians! Politicians! We must be careful. We no get another country. President Goodluck, do good. Don't follow their bad advice. No use your power to scatter you father land. If you go US you be stranger there o. We are praying.
ReplyDeleteOh gosh, I so hate USA, all what they say in the media is a direct opposite of the dirty deals the cia is doing. Even Boko haram iis a CIA covert operation. Check google sha, no be me talk am
ReplyDeleteLet NIgeria be divided, i hate being a Nigerian. let every zone go their seprate ways, am a Biafran not a Nigerian, British are the pple who put together and name us Nigeria, there was nothing called Nigeria before the coming of brits, so Nigeria must be disolved soon.
ReplyDeleteAT Anonymous February 15, 2015 at 1:32 PM...... U re silly.... U want ur country to be divided right. U won't be alive to see that happen in Jesus name. Ur opinion is a useless talk. U this senseless fellow. Instead of u praying for peace , u re hear talking shit!
ReplyDeleteI strongly believe with the first speaker. Is that why USA insist of not enlisting boko Haram among those that are threat to its National security? No wonder they are their products and even when what they are calling for exactly tallies with alqaida , Taliban and ISILS, they still absolved them thereby insulating them under the cover of Jonathan ( Before they turn back on him after filing his secret records of Genocides and push him to Hague to face ICC just like they did to Charles tailor, and kosovo culprits) to open arsenal market for them in Nigeria. Massacre, Genocide and ethnic cleansing is what they are planning. May God protect us from their bad plan Ameen.
ReplyDeleteTelling us that d incumbent will win when d entire country is tired of him n was waiting for d election day to thro him out in adding salt to injury. Do u want to sink dis nation Mr American. Pls spare us. We are smarter than u think pls. U need a war ground to be testing ur weapons. Try another place not nigeria pls.
ReplyDeleteSee pray, na ur mama and ur papa will die in jesus name u are a big fool.nigeria must be divided, can we call our selfs one nigeria but u and I knows that we are not one talk of nigeria, are u not seeing what is happening in d north killing my peopel in d name of Muslim how can u forget so soon that buhari is a boko haram,divided will bring peace for evry one now becouse we are going to mach for jonathan Blood by Blood
ReplyDeletei was the first person who said here let Nigeria be divided and i still maintain what i said, Nigeria was never one and will never be one, let Nigeria be divided for peace to righn. Am a biafran not a nigerian, is an abomination to be called a nigerian, i hate it! nigeria must be divided whether u northerners likes it or not, it is just a matter of time. let every zone go and form their own country, i hate being in the same country with the islamists. kowa ya bi ubansa dun uban hausawa!.
ReplyDelete