With just few weeks left to the presidential election in Nigeria, we are patiently waiting for what many perceive as potentially the most keenly contested elections in the history of Nigeria, various media platforms have already started conducting different online opinion polls to sample the acceptance of the two leading presidential candidates - President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Maj Gen Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) of the All Progressive Congress (APC).
Opinion Poll?
An opinion poll is a scientific survey designed to measure the views of a specific group — for example a country's electors (for most political polls)
In Nigeria, opinion polls have been conducted online by different news websites and a popular TV station, and Gen Muhammadu Buhari of the APC has defeated PDP's President Jonathan convincingly in most of the polls.
Sahara Reporters poll
In the poll conducted by Sahara Reporters, in October 2014, out of the 15,435 votes, Buhari got 12,246 votes which represented 79% of the votes, while Jonathan could only manage 3189 votes - 21%
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SaharaReporters Poll: 2015 Presidential Elections |
In what was widely perceived as a quick response to the first online presidential poll organized by Sahara Reporters, The Special Assistant to the President on New Media, Reno Omokri, activated a similar poll asking almost the same question posed by Sahara Reporters.
His poll, which was on his blog, “Build Up Nigeria” posed the question: “If the Nigerian Presidential election were held today, who would you vote for between President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari?”.
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| Buhari clearly leading in the poll organized by Reno |
Mr. Omokri’s poll began a day after Mr. Buhari declared to run, but unlike the one ran by Sahara Reporters, which was only for 24 hours, the one by Build Up Nigeria only closed suddenly after Mr. Jonathan was able to catch up with Buhari's lead.
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| Reno's poll after he mobilized support for Jonathan to catch up, after which he closed the poll |
Six hundred and nine voters, representing 2.29 percent of the total votes, were undecided.
Sources close to Mr. Omokri said he decided to hurriedly close the poll in apprehension that Mr. Buhari’s supporters might charge back online to vote the former head of state to an unassailable victory.
Mr. Omokri did not indicate the duration of the poll in the beginning and rushing to close it after the president got a slim lead is like changing the rules in the middle of the game, said Femi Falade, a development expert and school owner in Ijebu-Ode, Ogun State.
“That’s clear rigging,” Mr. Falade said.
Mr. Buhari had led in the polls for three days in what is seen as an embarrassing and unforeseen outcome for the president’s camp.
Several aides and loyalists of the president were mobilised extensively to reverse the trend in the last 24 hours.
Insiders in the president’s camp said presidency and administration officials as well as the top hierarchy of the governing Peoples Democratic Party felt “deeply embarrassed” by the direction of the poll and mobilised supporters of the president in and outside Nigeria to quickly get online and vote in his favour.
“Phone calls were made to supporters of the president in the Transformation Ambassador of Nigeria (TAN), Goodluck Support Groups (GSG), Gejites and other groups sympathetic to the president,” one of our sources said.
“They were being pressured to get online and reverse the results in favour of the president, even if means voting multiple times with multiple devices,” said the source who preferred not to be named for security reasons.
AIT Online Poll
The Africa Independent Television (AIT) network few days ago on their official website conducted an independent poll ahead of the February 14th presidential elections in Nigeria.
The poll was conducted by a T.V station that clearly showed her pro-Jonathan stance after running a documentary aimed at hurting the public perception of Buhari. The hour-long documentary, “The Real Buhari”.
Futhermore a copy of the documentary was made available online but rather than do damage to Buhari’s support, it seems to have further emboldened his supporters to troop online to vote massively for him, as Buhari also defeated Jonathan in the online poll organized by AIT (Africa Independent Television)
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| Result of AIT poll shortly before it was taken down |
In a press statement released to the media, DAAR Communications Plc, parent company of African Independent Television (AIT), alleged that their recent AIT Online presidential opinion poll was maliciously compromised in favor of the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Muhammadu Buhari.
DAAR Communications Plc. stated that the polls were doctored by hackers connected to the APC, and discredited the survey, which was taken down from the site abruptly.
"General Mohammed Buhari had taken a massive lead in the online poll being conducted by Africa Independent Television's website where he led President Goodluck Jonathan by 77% to 21% prompting the technical team of the AIT poll to conduct an integrity test on the results at midnight," the statement read.
AIT was however not able to provide convincing proof that APC supporters indeed rigged the polls. the proof they provided was proved to be doctored because it contained IP Addresses that did not exist and could not have actually voted.
Reno Omokri tries his luck again...
For the second time, The Special Assistant to the President on New Media, Reno Omokri, tried to test the popularity of President Jonathan as well as weigh his chances in the upcoming elections using the social media, and again, he was disappointed.
Using his Twitter handle, @Renoomokri, Mr. Omokri asked two questions.
“Who will be more tolerant of criticisms? Retweet to choose GEJ. Favourite for Buhari. Answer honestly with the fear of God! #WhyIwillVoteGEJ”.
“Who will respect the rule of law .Retweet to choose GEJ, Favourite for Buhari. Answer honestly, with the fear of God! #WhyIwillVoteGEJ”.
His first question got 212 Retweets and 2006 Favourites.
The second, got 130 retweets for President Jonathan and 1280 Favourites for Mr. Buhari.
Mr. Omokri stopped the poll after an early lead by the opposition candidate but continued tweeting with his #WhyIwillVoteGEJ hashtag.
He later deleted the tweets.
The poll was the second failed survey conducted by Mr. Omokri to burnish the image of President Jonathan.
Omojuwa's Opinion Poll
In yet another poll organized by popular Nigerian blogger and socio-economic and political commentator Omojuwa, he asked on his website, omojuwa.com
Who would you vote for President?
Muhammadu Buhari or Goodluck Jonathan
As at press time, out of the Total Voters: 3,486
Buhari leads with 3,287Votes representing 88% of total votes, while Jonathan is far behind with 454 Votes representing 12%
NigerianEye Presidential Poll
NigerianEye.com also sampled the opinion of Nigerians by activation a presidential opinion poll.
The online poll gave readers the opportunity to vote for the candidate they wanted to win the 2015 presidential elections.
The NigerianEye online poll has no room for manipulation as a participant can only vote once with a device - either through desktop, tablet, laptop or mobile device.
The transparency of the polling can be tested by participants who can see the result when they vote.
Any attempt to vote twice with the same device was not possible as only the current result was displayed.
As at press time, Buhari again is leading president Jonathan in the NigerianEye poll.
4248 people have voted for Buhari representing 73% of the total votes, while 1456 voted for Jonathan representing 25% of the votes.
The NigerianEye poll is still on for the next 9 days and you can CLICK HERE to vote
How reliable are online polls?
Polls have become indispensable to finding out what people think and how they behave. All polls are surveys based on samples drawn from parent populations. A poll's purpose is to make accurate inferences about that population from what is directly learned about the sample through questions the sampled persons answer.
- Online polls are not totally representative and do not always represent public opinion.
- Furthermore, The results of online polls are the opinion of the online population only and they are not a true representation of the majority of the people without internet.
- Nigerians living in the diaspora can vote in online polls, while they will not vote in the election proper.
- Another important factor is that readers below 18 years old can participate in online polls, whereas they cannot in the election proper.
- Another issue is double voting, a reader can decide to vote with different devices and ips in order to manipulate the results of the poll
Why opinion polls are very important
Despite all it's shortcomings and criticisms, online polling is still a very useful tool of analysis and a major source of public opinion.
The same way that a chef can judge the sweetness of a large pot of soup by tasting just one spoonful, providing that the soup has been well stirred, so that the spoonful is properly "representative", one spoonful is sufficient to know the taste of the soup.
Online opinion polls operate on the same principle: achieving representative samples is broadly akin to stirring the soup.
Also a chef could drink a large amount from the top of the soup, and still obtain a misleading view if some of the ingredients have sunk to the bottom. Just as the trick in checking soup is to stir well, rather than to drink lots, and by stirring well here, we have been able to sample the results of different online opinion polls.
The essence of a poll is to secure a representative sample, rather than a vast one, so consequently the representative sample will be the pointer to the vast majority.
In general conclusion, while online opinion polls may not be perfect, but they are a very important way of measuring public opinion. Why should The Special Assistant to the President on New Media, Reno Omokri be bothered if opinion polls were not important?
According to the British polling council, In most countries where poll results can be compared with actual results (such as elections), well-designed polls are usually accurate to within 3%, even if they occasionally stray outside that margin of error. Click to signup for FREE news updates, latest information and hottest gists everyday
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Indeed, online polls are generally representative of public opinion. GEJ's apologetics have always claimed manipulation, or that the online voters are not necessarily those that will eventually vote. My response is this: Does any one party or candidate have a monopoly of being able to vote online? There is no channel available to Buhari supporters that is not available to Jonathan's supporters. The consistency of these polls results cannot be dismissed with the wave of the hand. What they tell us is that there is NO WAY Jonathan will win this election unless there is unprecedented manipulation of some sort.
ReplyDeleteJonathan's supporters won't manipulate votes as done by Buhari's supporters. Thank God on Feb 14th, they would have no chance to do just that and the real result will come.GEJ will defeat BUhari with a clear margin.
DeleteShame on PDP
ReplyDeleteI just hope that PDP won't do something nasty
ReplyDeletekai kai analysis
ReplyDelete9 days to go , PDP should do everything in there power now to save Jonathan , that is if there's anything left to be done , Jonathan made a mistake by thinking that people will take him the way we took OBJ but , he is not OBJ and people noe want to know what is actually going on now in the government than in those days .
ReplyDeletefrom all indication if both Jona and Buhari later qualifies pending there court cases and the election not postponed , if INEC announced Jonathan as a winner, lots of people will come out for a mass protest because Jonathan is in the president sit by luck and that luck have take him farer than he can imagine.
"That is clear rigging." I'm afraid that's what PDP will do! Buhari has popular support no doubt; he may even win the elections but they won't let him taste that Presidency, not while IBB, OBJ & Abdusalami are still alive! Anyone wonders why Jonathan recently paid another visit to IBB who overthrew Buhari's regime! Old biffs still reign; those guys know they'll be in soup if Buhari gains power so Nigerians will be naïve to think their votes will count. I'm still in support of Buhari though.
ReplyDeleteI think the people have spoken loud and clear through the polls.
ReplyDeleteThe unanimous outcome is not a coincident.
All of u here are dreaming. The d-day is just around the corner. U ll c tins 4 urself. Goodluck 2 u Mr Presido.
ReplyDeleteI am a redeemer but I will never vote for APC because that is the tactis Buhari want to use against the country due to his selfish aims because he sense it that he may loose again and he now went to pick a candidate in Redeem simply because of the crowd in Redeem, as for me no way therefore, nobody can buy my consience rather i will follow it deligently and APC cannot brain wash everybody
ReplyDeleteBros mi, jus be honest, btw PDP & APC, who is brainwashing the public, U no de wash TV? Unfortunately for them, these video clips keep projecting GMB as one that can never confuse Corruption for mere stealing, which is our primary problem here, thus they are paying money to increase his popularity each day that passes bye. I can now understand why the bible says, "seek 1st the kingdom of God, & all shall be added unto you". All in this case includes your adversary footing your campaign bills.(Buhari had all the chances to steal but chose to serve) I can see God turning curses into blessings for GMB. Dust up your PVC & join me on FEB 14 to enthrone Buhari so as you will be counted among those that brought this Nehemiac change, but just in case you're not convinced, do not bother, for God can use willing stones to effect this change for the benefit of his dear children, so he is not interested in one that votes grudgingly.
Deletehow can u sample expected over 60million votes with 15,000 votes.and how many Nigerians have access to your online sample.pls don't cause confusion with this your so called kangaroo opinion pool pls. Feb 14 will decide.
ReplyDeletePls stop giving Buhari false hope online poll how many villagers , farmers and traders are involve in this on line polls. You think we are like developed nations whose on line represents the truth on ground . It is important that we wait and see the election date is on hand.
ReplyDeleteThe same poll was conducted in 1993 and the result of the poll jolted the military, hence the annulment. Today, we are in a different setting, no one can singly annul people's wish this time around. We are in it together.
ReplyDeleteThe reason why our country is in the mess it finds itself is simply because the people are not serious at all. I find it hard to imagine that educated people can say that the online polls result posted here are irrelevant. The question I will ask the Pro-Jonathan supporters is this; If it had happen that Jonathan was winning, what would have been your comments? My guess is as good as yours.
ReplyDeleteFor the very first time in the History of our country, we want a change and people come here to talk of Buhari's past, Jesus whom I serve said, he who has no sin should cast the first stone. If fighting corruption is the only this Buhari will do, let it be so. Its only in Nigeria that we cry of corrupt leaders and the masses do not want to do anything about it.
If Jonathan is found to be corrupt, He should go to jail, same with any past leaders. In 2011, I personally campaigned for Jonathan here in Scotland, and my reason was becuase he is educated as he claims and he is a Christian. But what I see is that he did not only fail us, he also made a mockery of all the teachings in the Bible.
I begin to wonder, why we the Christians keep shouting that Buhari will make Nigeria an Islamic state, how possible is that, in this age and time. The good Lord I serve will fight for himself, who are we to fight for God.
The summary of my comment is, let God decide who leads us and lets stop being irresponsible by supporting nonsense and gross indiscipline. United Kingdom, USA and the likes are where they are today becuase they do not tolorate indolence in the part of the goverment or citizens. We Nigerians must wake up from supporting leaders because they come from our ethnic backgrond or religious faith, but support those that have positive agenda for our country.
God bless Nigeria
how many people voted online? analyse their location you will laugh..... Mostly YABA Lagos
ReplyDeleteLet ppl 4rm bayelsa vote gej online too. My man u no get point. Arnt gej's ppl online?
ReplyDeleteD whole world is hesding to eternal distruction. Repent. Turn from jehova to the almighty God. Jehova is a false god. Jesus is d real God. If u have ears listen
ReplyDeleteYou're confused! Too much ogogoro in your system.
DeleteNigeria has come of age we know what we want and we will get it by the grace of the all mighty, Change is what we yearn for and Change we will get. Sentimements aside its time to prove that in respective of our ascent we belong to one GREAT COUNTRY NIGERIA what ever it takes to get to our dream Nigeria we beg God to lead us Sai Bahari
DeleteDo not be deceived. PDP is still far better than APC. Just look at our politics today, just like a child's play where assassination of personal character is the order of the day. Never witnessed such a dirty politics filled with irritation and lies.
ReplyDeleteWhether we like it or not, one cannot fight the truth.
ReplyDeleteGEJ is a patholigical liar and a highly deceptive individual.
GEJ secured the PDP 2011 mandate by deception (i.e. 419) in that without being compelled, he declared his intention not to seek for second term and declared with his mouth that his tenure will end May 2015 with BBC UK also carrying the story on 01/02/2011. That means, GEJ committed 419.
I have checked and confirmed via google that this story is still on BBC UK website.
Based on the promise and declaration by GEJ back in 2011, Nigerians voted for him, then suddenly his true 419 color showed. Not only did he underperformed, he also condoned corruption even more than NPN back in the 1979-1983.
Let's face the fact, GEJ belongs to the father of liars. He now leads a propaganda outfit to swindle Nigerians at all cost.
If someone is pathologically deceitful, it will dangerous to rely on any of his words or to ever take the fellow seriously or believe in the fellow in anyway.
Have you heard what he told the world, he said the Ekitigate tape is fabrication, and that is why he will not investigate or probe it. Amazingly deceitful and stupid (please pardon my French language). The simple question then is, how did GEJ determine that the tapes were fabricated in the light of all the evidences and forensic confirmation of the voices coupled with admission on part of some of the individuals involved that indeed they held the secret meeting.
Indeed, a leader may have at his/her disposal the People’s cum Nation's resources to spend (and even squander) all in the name of Projects. However, there are crucial things that a leader on his/her own part must bring to that table/seat of leadership which are namely, righteousness, honesty, integrity, character (must be a man/woman of his/her words either in secret or in the open), hatred for sin, hatred for corruption, hatred for hypocrisy, courage (not an ostrich like leader that will be busy burying head in the sand), empathy, etc.
The Bible in Proverbs 6:16-19 states that;
These six things doth the LORD hate: yea, seven are an abomination unto him: a proud look, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, a heart that deviseth wicked imaginations, feet that be swift in running to mischief, a false witness that speaketh lies, and he that soweth discord among brethren.
Assessing GEJ on all the aforementioned shows that God can never and will never support and individual like GEJ unless God himself is a liar which can never be so.
GEJ is morally bankrupt, that is a truth that we cannot fight or else we will never be free. Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set you free. It’s only righteousness that will exalt our Nation and I will never accept anything less from any leader voted into power.
I bet my millions on this fact that by the time GEJ is out of power, the new Government will be saddled with huge sums of promissory notes on contracts that have been implemented at ridiculously inflated prices in order for GEJ to try impressing Nigerians within a span of just few months after seeing he has been rejected by us.
GEJ is seriously mounting massive internal debt on Nigerians via hurriedly negotiated contracts at whatever cost in order to fool Nigerians.
GEJ is continuously secretly on a daily basis plunging us into more debt that it will take many generations to repay.
GEJ should have taken the noble part and sponsor someone else as PDP Presidential Candidate rather than wasting millions of precious Naira all in the name of Transformation Agenda Propaganda.
GEJ should have been a man of his words.
GMB All the way. Nothing stopping you sir.
ReplyDeleteThey have only presented a result of the recent poll and I can see some people pouring out all their words, I think the presenter here is only giving the analysis gotten so far, but some ppl are already killing themselves, Nigerians are not sincere and that is the root of our problem, why should I be arguing now that the result is not true or its a lie, I only need to look at it and prepare. We in Europe even know that the presence of Buhari has destabilized the president and his party, this is something they didnt expect. This means Nigerians are changing and we cant fool Nigerians again, every leader must be ready to work because if today Buhari becomes the president and he mess up Nigerians will do same to him, this is where we are heading to, its a good development. But I advice they shouldnt insist on clinging to power, thats my appeal
ReplyDeletePDP is a total failure. Imagine if the intensity and desperation being used by GEJ and his supporters in this election campaign had being channelled towards building a better Nigeria, i know this nation would have been more better than this. Nigerians dont need people who are desperate only to remain at the corridor of power- desperater power-mongers, we need people who can better the economy with improved policies. Nigeria is not a personal property of some set of cabals who believe they must always be at the corridor of power at all times, let others come in from the sidelines to display their own ingenuity to see how Nigeria can move forward. WE MUST CHANGE! NIGERIA MUST CHANGE!
ReplyDelete