Nigeria has the potential to be the fastest growing economy and rank 13th among the world’s top 20 economies from now to 2050, according to the World in 2050 report published by Price waterhouseCoopers, PwC’s macroeconomics team.
The report stated that with a projected GDP of nearly US$4 trillion by 2050 and an annual average real GDP growth rate of around six percent, as well as a youthful and growing working population, Nigeria is projected to rank 13th among the world’s largest economies by 2050 if it can realise its full potential.
According to the report, a growing, prime working age population, together with rising average rates of schooling and technological progress, drives Nigeria’s strong growth prospects.
However, the report’s projections rely on the country using its oil wealth to develop a broader-based economy with better infrastructure and institutions which will support long term productivity growth.
In his comment Andrew S. Nevin, a partner with PwC Nigeria, said: “Nigeria’s projections for population, education levels and technological progress are very strong. Nigeria lags behind with regard to its investment rate, however.
Productivity is lower in Nigeria due to weaker infrastructure and institutions, as well as an over-reliance on oil revenues. By investing in these areas and diversifying its economy, Nigeria can realise its full potential by 2050″.
“Over the past decade, the private sector has played an enormously positive role in sectors like telecoms, retail, and financial services in Nigeria and throughout Africa. For Nigeria to realise its potential, it is going to require governments at the state and federal levels to play their role in fostering the right type of environment, including improvements in the rule of law, greater transparency and strengthening of the health and education systems, and enabling the development of key sectors, with power being the most important. Many strides have been made in this regard and they need to keep coming.”
John Hawksworth, PwC Chief Economist and co-author of the report, said: “The shift in the global economic centre of gravity is clear. The E7 could overtake the G7 before 2020, and by 2050 China, the US and India could be by far the largest economies – with a big gap to Brazil in fourth place, ahead of Japan.
By the same time, Russia, Mexico and Indonesia could be bigger than Germany or the UK; Turkey could overtake Italy; and Nigeria could rise up the league table, as could Vietnam and South Africa in the longer term. There are huge opportunities for Western companies in the emerging markets – but also great competitive challenges from fast-growing emerging market companies.
Governments also face huge challenges, not least in relation to global warming as a result of this rapid pace of economic development.”
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