With 6.1 million votes, Lagos has always been critical to any victory in this election, and the PDP has fought a furious battle to win the state which has never been won by the ruling party since Nigeria's return to democracy in 1999. Fallout from the collapse of the alliance between the Action Congress of Nigeria and the Congress for Progressive Change may have damaged the former in a state where it previously held absolute dominance.
News that the party's presidential candidate, Nuhu Ribadu, offered to step down for Mr Buhari had left many of the party's supporters bereft and their anger against the former head of state may have improved the fortunes of Mr Jonathan in Nigeria's most populous state. "I hold Buhari purely responsible for the misfortune of our party, and I would really prefer that the PDP wins instead," said a staunch supporter of Mr Ribadu who preferred not to be named.
In Ikeja, Ikorodu, Surulere and Kosofe, PDP won in many of the polling units where results were made available. The president also won in the villa, unlike last week when the PDP lost the national assembly election in that polling unit. Although that by itself may not mean much, the president's team has begun to talk of victory, talk which is a little too early.
Oronto Douglas, the president's special assistant on strategy told our reporter that he had no doubt that his principal would win. "The reasons are obvious: Nigerians want a leader that will listen to them," he said. "Nigerians want a leader that is a friend of all and has no enemy. Nigerians want a leader that will usher in an era of peace, progress and development, and above all, Nigerians want a man that is God-conscious, God-fearing and loves the people that he leads. And I think that this exemplary quality of total commitment, devotion to the people and to God is the kind of quality and character that Nigerians want at this point in time in our nation's history."
Not so fast
Mr Douglas's confidence will undoubtedly surprise anyone who saw the way voters turned out for Muhammadu Buhari in Katsina, overwhelming the opposition with such a force of numbers that sent PDP party agents into hiding. Mr Buhari's supporters climbed tree tops and buildings and practically turned the voting process into a celebration of victory.
So far, the battle still remains between the major contenders, Mr Jonathan and Mr Buhari - the only question is really how close that battle will be. Turnout in the northern states of Kaduna, Kano, Nasarawa, and Niger states, where the CPC appeared set to win the day, was quite high. Indeed, in Kaduna, the large voter presence became a big problem as the shortage of ballot papers threatened to disenfranchise many people.
The vice president, Namadi Sambo, was booed in his polling unit at Kabala Ward and he had to leave quickly after he was accredited in the morning. It is likely he might again lose in that unit to the CPC as did the Niger State governor, Muazu Babangida Aliyu who again lost his polling unit to the CPC. The state's deputy governor, Musa Ibeto, also lost in his area which last week produced the first non-PDP senator in Niger State since 1999.
Largely peaceful election
A bomb went off in Maiduguri again like it did last week, making it the most brazen form of violence during the presidential elections. The explosion took place at a border town police station and although no one was hurt in the blast, two policemen later died in another gun battle with a man allegedly carrying illegal firearms. The man was arrested, and even more remarkably, so were the alleged bombers.
"The attack on the police station was carried out with an improvised explosive device and the culprits have been apprehended," said the Independent Electoral Commission on its Twitter page early yesterday. Less dramatic perhaps was an incident in Jos where a member of the State Task Force shot and injured some youth at the Utan polling area, off Zaria road.
The shooting sparked riots by youth who disrupted voting, dislodged INEC staff there and vandalised voting equipment. In most parts of the country, however, voting was characterised by its peaceful and orderly nature. On a particularly hot day, Nigerians wore their sunglasses and took along umbrellas to participate in the election which saw a huge voter turnout. In many instances, the turnout for the presdiential poll far outstripped the elections for parliament held last week.
Cross River State, which recorded an average turnout in the national assembly elections, had quite a large number of voters coming out to vote yesterday. The state's resident electoral commissioner, Mike Igini, said in an interview that after going around some local government areas, his biggest challenge was how to manage the crowd. "I never knew Calabar South Local Government Area is this thickly populated," he said. "This area is really populous." Even Bayelsa State, which had some of the worst cases of electoral malpractice in the last elections, was practically peaceful this time around.
Mr Douglas noted that, "The flashpoint (Bayelsa) has now shown that it is ready for democracy. So far, no report of any uproar has happened here or elsewhere, and I believe that this goodwill will permeate and spread throughout the country." Edo State governor, Adams Oshiomhole, was also full of praise for the conduct of the election.
Mr Oshiomhole who again voted at his Ward 10, Unit 1, Iyamho Primary School, Etsako West Local Government Area of Edo State, said: "I believe that today, INEC has improved substantially. Nobody complained about not finding his name in the register, or that ‘I wanted to vote, but somebody blocked me'." Head of the African Union observer mission and former Ghanaian president, John Kuffor, however noted the cumbersome nature of the elections - requiring voters to sit around for hours - and hoped the situation could be improved upon.
Finding answer to apathy in the west
In the country's western region, voter turnout was a little more subdued. In Lagos, Oyo, and even Kwara State, the dismal turnout has already sparked passionate discussions. A voter in Ilorin, Akinlekun Mojeed, said the people were more concernced about who ruled over their local affairs than who became president.
The state chairman of the Nigeria Bar association, Salmon Jawando, thought that the success of last week's turnout may have been responsible for this week's failure. "So many people came out with their voter's cards to vote last week but could not find their names on the voters register, and that must have been discouraging," he said. Talk of intimidation may also have played some part. Anu Ibiwoye who was an ACN candidate for the Senate in last week's parliamentary election, was allegedly kidnapped by unknown persons.
The situation was probably worse in Oyo State where voter apathy was clearly evident, although the election was peaceful. NEXT visited Unit 10, Ward 9 at Mokola area of Ibadan North Local Government around noon when voter accreditation was ending and noticed that only 345 of the registered 1,113 names were accredited for the election. Lam Adesina, the former governor of the state, attributed this to a long-standing disconnect between the federal government and people living in the component states.
Speaking with journalists shortly after casting his vote at his Fefele area residence, Mr Adesina blamed former President Olusegun Obasanjo's combativeness in support of the ruling party which had reportedly destroyed the interest of most people in the southwest in politics at the centre. Lanre Adeleke, the Oyo state director of the Jonathan/Sambo Presidential Campaign Organisation, thought turnout was low because many political parties in the country did not have candidates. According to him, about 40 of the existing parties had adopted the candidacy of President Jonathan and this undoubtedly affected the disposition of party members to the election.
Abiola Ajimobi, governorship candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria in the state said it was easier for the people to relate to candidates for the national assembly and governorship seats than those gunning for the presidency. The national coordinator of the Coalition of Democrats for Electoral Reform, Ayo Opadokun, said the heavy presence of security operatives in major areas could have scared people who wanted to come out and vote. There are those who also blamed the poor turnout on the mishandling of the ACN/CPC merger, but one of the architects of the failed accord, former governor of Lagos state, Bola Tinubu gave the matter short shrift. "The alliance is bleeding now, let it bleed to death and then we can do the postmortem," he said.
Too close to call
It will be foolhardy to predict the results of this election before all the counting has been done and that will take a while still. Although the electoral commission had promised that all results would be declared within 48 hours, that rule has been followed more in the breacch than in the observance. Putative results however indicate that the next president would either be Mr Jonathan or Mr Buhari.
If Mr Jonathan wins, it would be a remarkable achievement for a man who not only hails from the little state of Bayelsa with the lowest voting population of 591,870 votes, but also was a relative unknown and did not have much of a national political base when he became the vice president. On the other hand, if retired General Buhari emerges victorious, it would be an indication that Nigerians are tired of the status quo and voted against incumbency with all its benefits including financial resources and the power of patronage. It would be a great victory for Mr Buhari's supporters.
Many analysts still doubt that the winner will emerge in this round. Mr Adesina predicted a runoff because according to him, none of the candidates would win the required 25 percent of votes or the two-thirds of votes required at the end of the exercise. Mr Jonathan is not particularly happy with such a scenario. "I pray that we do not go into by-election because of the cost implication," he said after casting his vote yesterday afternoon at polling unit Ward 39 of Ward 3, Otuabala. "Nigeria is a big country and to calculate one round of election, if you calculate the amount of money to pay adhoc staff and security agencies, it is a collosal sum of money. So even for the economic reason and to reduce tension, we pray that whoever will win should do so at the first ballot."
Mr Shekarau had one piece of advice for his fellow contestants: "If the elections are free, fair and credible, then the participants should accept the verdict of the people." It is advice Nigerians will like to see heeded.
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